When will the US stock market get back to Q1, 2000 highs?

[baraban]

Let us know what your opinion!

[robot]

5 years...

[conektions]

Hmmmmm let me get my krystal ball...ili kak u nas govoryat "Znal bi prikup, jil bi v sochi"

I'd like to think it will happen in the next 5 years, but before this happens, the Dow will break October-2002 low. I am not buying this economic recovery, not yet.

[CATAHA]

like a said never
ero and dollar is at war
what is win that is what will rull
i hope ero wins
statisik said that 70-80% of american dollars in russia and now a lot of russian changing d to e ;-)))))

[Natka]

soglasna s SATANOy i conektions - v recovery veritsya s trudom. Poetomu s'e...t' otseda nado poskoree.:)

Investors are not buying this crap anymore.
Nuzhno radovat'sya chto etot "myl'niy puzir'"- Hi Tech - ne lopnul v odin den' kak kogda-to v tridcatix byl "cherniy vtornik" .

[baraban]

I can't believe all of you pessimists! Am I the only optimist left in the world?

[Запивон]

Автор оригинала: baraban
Let us know what your opinion!

DJI within 3-5 years, NASDAQ not in this lifetime.

Invest in hedge funds, they openly f..k the rest of investors and that what it is all about.

[baraban]

That's a curious thought there, Mr. Zapivon! I hope you come to the Ukranian Center with us tonight and expound further on this idea of hedge funds. A friend of mine manages hedge fund investments and has been eager to help me without any fees. Should I do this and why?

[Запивон]

Автор оригинала: baraban
That's a curious thought there, Mr. Zapivon! I hope you come to the Ukranian Center with us tonight and expound further on this idea of hedge funds. A friend of mine manages hedge fund investments and has been eager to help me without any fees. Should I do this and why?

The hedge funds have no rules to comply, as far as I know. It's good to beat **** out of the market when the traditional ways don't work. For instance, typical hedge fund has no legal issues to go 100% short in the recession market, which is risky, yet the only way to cut losses. Also, the hedge funds are small enough to benefit from the market condition changes, whereas the standard investment funds carry to much inertia to relocate assets on the fast time scale.

[baraban]

Автор оригинала: Запивон


The hedge funds have no rules to comply, as far as I know. It's good to beat **** out of the market when the traditional ways don't work. For instance, typical hedge fund has no legal issues to go 100% short in the recession market, which is risky, yet the only way to cut losses. Also, the hedge funds are small enough to benefit from the market condition changes, whereas the standard investment funds carry to much inertia to relocate assets on the fast time scale.

What % of your assets would you alocate to these investments? Are all the hedge funds the same? What factors are important in choosing the right hedge fund? What are the risks? What are the potential rewards?

[NewDog]

Автор оригинала: baraban
I can't believe all of you pessimists! Am I the only optimist left in the world?

My stock options are already out of water
So recovery is possible... but not for everyone....and not to the level of the year 2000.

Surge in production that followed the end of the Cold War will never return again.
Likewise, private investors will probably not ride another bubble until the next hi-tech boom happens (antigravity, fuel cells, cryogenics... you name it).

[conektions]

To Mr. Zapivon: A little knowledge could be dangerous

To Baraban: I hope you think wisely and evaluate ALL the alternatives before making any kind of investment decission. Until then, I would recommend money market, AAA rated bond mutual funds, mortgage securities, various government securities, or municipal bonds if you are in the 40% tax bracket.

[eric]

TO: barabanshik

RE: “hedge fund investments”
To help you understand the principle behind the Hedging, let’s break it down to the very basics: Apples and Oranges.
JUST what are 2 most popular juices in the US? First, the OJ and then Apple Juice, no? When the orange orchards get frozen, those investors who had their assets in apples still make money. To HEDGE is to invest lets say 60% in oranges and 40% in apples. Koroche, podstrahovka.

RE: when will the market get HOT again?
Consider this, since its conception the market had steadily climbed up to, let’s say about 20 years ago, I think it was at about 2K or so. 200 million shares traded was considered a big day. People were content. A 5K day was unimaginable though. Then the Market hit 3K…4K. They celebrated and drank champagne on the floor of The NYSE. A 5K day was just round the corner. However, a 10K day was unthinkable. Little do we know, there came a day when 10K was nothing but a norm.

The market is mostly about being able to sync up your prognosis with the Real Time. JUST remember, the accuracy of your prognosis/projections is directly proportional to the time you spend researching. You MUST know your commodities. Imagine playing a game of chess without being aware of its basic rules, never mind the strategy.

We all know that the Mercury is an integral part of the thermometer. JUST think of the Market as the same instrument, ONLY its “Mercury” shifts from one commodity to another, ot odnoi indusrii na druguyu. People made money on the bandwagon of “DOT. COMs”. Sure it was easy… it lasted for years. Everyone was on a high horse and thought of themselves as “big time” investors. Now what are they all doing? Reminiscing about the “good old times”.

RE: “Should I do this and why?”
JUST think Prognosis/Projections. For example, all of us have been subconsciously realizing that the oil industry is booming. We all are furious about the rising gas prices, are we not? Now, do you think there were some who saw this as opportunity? And guess what? Even if they don’t make another dime, they had already made 50% on their money just during this year, while everyone else was busy looking into their “crystal balls” :)))

Wall Street Journal: “ChevronTexaco Corp. on Friday said its first-quarter profit nearly tripled, lifted by a dramatic rise in oil prices that drove gasoline prices higher. First-quarter revenue totaled $31 billion, a 47 percent increase from $21.2 billion last year. Chevron's shares rose $2.35 in one day to close Friday, May 2”

JUST Think of the sand-clock. Either way you turn it up, whatever is lost out of one side is gained by the other. It is The Volume Traded that is of key essence. See, as long as there is volatility in the market there is just as much money to be made as there is to be lost. Again, You MUST RESEARCH YOUR COMMODITIES.

As you can see, I do not claim to know the answer nor can I look into the “crystal ball”, I do not have one. I can only attempt to clear up the path; it is you who has to walk through the door.

e.

[NewDog]

Автор оригинала: eric
TO: barabanshik

As you can see, I do not claim to know the answer nor can I look into the “crystal ball”, I do not have one. I can only attempt to clear up the path; it is you who has to walk through the door.

e.

There is no clear path.
Contrary to what you said, economy is very unlike a thermometer.
The latter is driven by few physical laws which are constant across our universe. The former is defined by a very broad combination of factors, most being beoynd the imagination of an average citizen.

This is why reliably making money on the short-term investments is possible only for two categories of people:

(a) the ones who influence the market directly
(b) the ones that have insider information

The rest of the investors do nothing but gamble.
Their confidence is based on a mere assumption that "tomorrow will be like today, but better". Generally speaking, this is true because every year human race produces more food, metal, electronics, junk toys, etc. If GDP keeps increasing, it is safe to print more money.
However, from a practical viewpoint such confidence is a complete illusion, for example:

- Oil companies would do poorly if G.Bush would not be elected.
- They will not be doing well in the more distant future as soon as alternative fuel sources will replace the need for burning gas
- They will do quite badly the day it will be known that oil reserves worldwide are being depleted

Therefore, there are no holy cows.

Another thing is, "money value" is highly subjective and naturally erodes over the time not only because of inflation, but mostly due to the decreased activity of investor, unless he/she is immortal.
I.e. if you will be able to buy an ocean yacht after 20 years of managing your money wise, it won't give you the same level of fun you could get from a small boat today.

For many people the best way to manage funds is just to get a life.

[Запивон]

Автор оригинала: conektions
To Mr. Zapivon: A little knowledge could be dangerous


I agree with this statement, yet I can't resist making a remark (again my personal opinion): in the markets it is better to know very little than to have a detailed knowledge superimposed on you by an investment bank.

[conektions]

//I agree with this statement, yet I can't resist making a remark (again my personal opinion): in the markets it is better to know very little than to have a detailed knowledge superimposed on you by an investment bank.//

Actually, we all wish we knew what they (investment banks) know, but most of the times we only know what they tell us. You are right, its better not to listen to them. If anything, I would use the recommendations of big brokerage houses as contrarian indicator.

[baraban]

Wow, I am very impressed by your answers and really want to know more of other peoples' opinions on this topic. So, please keep them comming...

[robot]

the people who wrote "not in this lifetime' are probably retiring in a few years anyway :)
I'm telling you - 5 years - a few years plus a change of a president... - easy!

[conektions]

Baraban, what was the date of that poll? Let's do another one in few weeks or months and see if sentiment of people on this forum changed. Markets went up quite a bit since that poll

[baraban]

It was done less than 5 months ago. Do you think things have changed much during this time?

[pgmatg]

I think so. Most analysts, that I listen to, say that things have been getting better for last 4 month or so.
And I can see that looking at how my Mutual Funds are doing, which is much better.

[Ваня]

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/007142959X/investorscom-20/002-8723229-4323226?creative=125581&camp=2321&link_code=as1

[conektions]

Автор оригинала: baraban
It was done less than 5 months ago. Do you think things have changed much during this time?

In my opnion nothing changed, but consumer sentiment is way up based on latest economic reports. Hence, the upward trend in the stock market.

[Ваня]

July 18, 2003
Russell celebrated his birthday early by selling all his bonds this past Tuesday -- "every last one."
Why did Russell do it?
Because "the U.S. is heading for maybe the greatest financial mess in world history. The U.S. is far too extended financially, militarily and socially in the way of entitlements that we can't afford."
Won't our income drop if we sell our bonds and are forced to invest the proceeds at today's dirt-cheap interest rates?
It sure will, but Russell says that we had better get used to getting by on less. "That's going to happen anyway, so you might as well get some practice at it now."
This Russell guy sure is a barrel of laughs, isn't he? ..............

The only long-term investment that Russell likes right now is gold, which he thinks "is in the very early phase of its bull market."
"As the bear's grip tightens on the economy, the first rush will be to accumulate dollars... But when the nation hits the wall of [the Federal Government's unfunded liabilities, estimated at more than $40 trillion], the dollar will start to unravel as the U.S. attempts to print its way out of disaster. That's when people will turn to gold."
Russell currently is allocating around 10 percent of his personal portfolio to gold mining companies. His favorite is Newmont Mining (NEM:

[bgrot]

Автор оригинала: CATAHA
like a said never
ero and dollar is at war
what is win that is what will rull
i hope ero wins
statisik said that 70-80% of american dollars in russia and now a lot of russian changing d to e ;-)))))

Vostochnaya Evropa ochen' bistro perexodit (v osnovnom, uzhe pereshla) na evro. Posledniy god, evro na mnogo stabil'nee. Interesno, chto budet esli dollar stabiliziruetsya, a evro nachnet skakat'...

[bgrot]

Автор оригинала: robot
the people who wrote "not in this lifetime' are probably retiring in a few years anyway :)
I'm telling you - 5 years - a few years plus a change of a president... - easy!

I'm doubtful about the public good, but in terms of corporate profits and, hence, the stock market, this president is probably as good as it gets.

Things can get really interesting in the next year: if **** in Iraq keeps hitting the fan, but economy picks up at home, this fool might win, again. Democratic party will all but cease to exist due to massive heart attacks.......

[Ваня]

Автор оригинала: baraban
It was done less than 5 months ago. Do you think things have changed much during this time? Было интересно узнать мнение Baraban members; хочу предложить почтенной публике вместо порхания по теориям, устроить типа соревнование конкретное: кто лучше предскажет движение индивидуальных акций в Америке. С обоснованием своих предсказаний или без него.

[conektions]

Автор оригинала: Ваня
Было интересно узнать мнение Baraban members; хочу предложить почтенной публике вместо порхания по теориям, устроить типа соревнование конкретное: кто лучше предскажет движение индивидуальных акций в Америке. С обоснованием своих предсказаний или без него.

Podderjivayou. Esho predlagayou malen'kiy vznos - 20 dollarov dopustim. Chey portfolio poydyot luchshe vsevo, zabiraet ves' pot.