Economy 2009

[baraban]

I wrote another little forecast a couple of days ago. You can read it http://stockvalues.org/economy-2009-fortune-magazine-top-stocks . Feel free to comment on it right on the StockValues.Org site - no registration is required.

[baraban]

Дорогой ДА, если у тебя есть нужда пообщаться со мной по поводу экономики (или любому другому поводу) на русском языке, пожалуйста будь добр и делай это на барабане.

Я не всевидящий и по тому бываю не прав. Так что, буду рад узнать когда я сказал что не так. Ты можешь помочь мне это сделать дав ссылку на не правильное предсказание. Еще раз, спасибо за твое желание помочь!

[Alex K]

Jake,

I have a question for you, rather a couple. What makes you think that market will be moving up in Q1 and Q2? Why do you think that in light of this recession and diminished global demand the price of energy and commodities will raise? Thank you.

[baraban]

Jake,

I have a question for you, rather a couple. What makes you think that market will be moving up in Q1 and Q2? Why do you think that in light of this recession and diminished global demand the price of energy and commodities will raise? Thank you.


You mean, what besides my crystal ball (i.e. gut feeling) tells me that this will happen? :)

Very little actually. I have superficially compared patterns of several bear markets, paying more attention to those that lasted longer and that's the pattern I see. Also market has been consistently discounting lots of bad news recently and forging ahead, which confirms that there is more room on the upside in the short term. In addition, many people are putting a lot of hope on president Obama and his economy plan - it will take till the summer for the talking heads to realize that it will not help and summer is often the time that the market takes a breather historically anyway. So, mostly anecdotal evidence and my gut feeling at work. But that's the best anybody can do.

As far as commodities being on the winning side of the trade, most have depreciated far more than they should have to account for lower demand. In the meantime $US dollar has appreciated as it always does in times of extreme distress (similar to gold). Once markets stabilize a bit, things will tend towards an equilibrium level. I wrote a whole bunch about it here: http://stockvalues.org/oil-gold-wheat

[Alex K]

Chrystal balls economic blogging are heluva dangerous nowdays.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_skorea_blogger_arrested
;)

I like Altria, Valero, Transocean, Dow Chemical, Archer Daniel and Corning because of a low P/E. Oil should gain back, but it may take a while. As far as overall market gains during the first half of this year I'm not so sure, yet. High unemployment, frozen consumer confidence and spending, lack of credibility of investors in financial markets make it questionable.

[baraban]

Chrystal balls economic blogging are heluva dangerous nowdays.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_skorea_blogger_arrested
;)

I like Altria, Valero, Transocean, Dow Chemical, Archer Daniel and Corning because of a low P/E. Oil should gain back, but it may take a while. As far as overall market gains during the first half of this year I'm not so sure, yet. High unemployment, frozen consumer confidence and spending, lack of credibility of investors in financial markets make it questionable.

Sounds like S. Korea is not better than the U.S. in protecting freedom of speech. But I have Hong Kong feng shui master on my side: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSP717920090121?rpc=44&pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0, not to mention John Mauldin: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/159564/John-Mauldins-2009-Outlook:-Deflation,-Recession,-New-Market-Lows