What makes prices on oil change?

[Yanka]

Not that I'm complaining about it right now.
But could anybody explain it to a houswife-in-the-dark here?

[Yanka]

I mean, not vegetable or olive oil.
I'm asking about gas for the cars.

[Prickol]

I mean, not vegetable or olive oil.
I'm asking about gas for the cars.Спрос и предложение... и еще много факторов...

[Yanka]

Спрос и предложение... и еще много факторов...
You don't know, just say so.

[Rozka]

You don't know, just say so.


I am not an expert on economy, but Prikol is right: it's supply and demand.
It is based on "anticipation" factor. The world anticipates economic downturn, and under these conditions demand goes down. Prices naturally go down.

But hey, WTF do I know?:puzzled: If anyone can come up with more practically and scientifically sound explanation, I'd be interested...:grin:

[Yanka]

Damn, I thought you people know something I don't.

[Rozka]

Damn, I thought you people know something I don't.

If you're expecting some sort of conspiracy theory, I am sure TNT will be more than willing to offer his deep intellectual analysis ;) He is an expert.

[baraban]

More precisely it is only the relationship between perceived future supply and demand.

Now, if you want to know what affects this perception of future supply and demand, the answer gets a whole hell of a lot more difficult.

[Drey]

More precisely it is only the relationship between perceived future supply and demand.

Now, if you want to know what affects this perception of future supply and demand, the answer gets a whole hell of a lot more difficult.

crude oil is one of the most important commodities for modern world, yet it falls into energy group. this is not just supply/demand and not even expected demand/supply. its a market of trading energy driven by not just fundamentals but also speculators ranging from companies to international organizations and even to countries... just like with Enron, there are major players on crude oil market that swing price up and down, creating false exectations of supply and demand. for me first indication of speculative moves are rapid growth and rapid fall of oil futures prices. when you see oil futures prices double in 6 months without doubling economic growth, suspect speculation...and the same in reverse. however fundamentals, like negative economic growth do make huge difference as well and not just due to crisis in developed countries. biggest drop in perception is due to slow demand in China. Other factors like reduced or increased production by Opec or some storms or other problems with supply add to the whole picture. Add to it currencies that most of the oil trades are settled in (US dollars)...once dollar starts devaluating prices will pick up... which i expect to happen within a few months or a year

[Yanka]

Well, I bothered to google a few articles on the topic. :)
These years, demand affected the price mostly because of growth of China and India. Supply affected the price because the instabilities in places like Iraq or Venesuela, the disasters like hurracanes, and temporary closings of the drilling spots for the equipment updating, etc.
But somewhat 60% of price is made on speculations, with the development of unregulated international derivatives trading in oil futures over the past decade or more. Big investors make money through their hedge funds and banks, re-selling oil papers to each other. Nothing is investigated much and their deals can't really be controlled. It sucks, the traders of those papers set the benchmark for oil prices.
So, I guess the gas is cheap right now only because of crisis panic among the big inverstors?
No?

[Prickol]

Well, I bothered to google a few articles on the topic. :)
These years, demand affected the price mostly because of growth of China and India. Supply affected the price because the instabilities in places like Iraq or Venesuela, the disasters like hurracanes, and temporary closings of the drilling spots for the equipment updating, etc.
But somewhat 60% of price is made on speculations, with the development of unregulated international derivatives trading in oil futures over the past decade or more. Big investors make money through their hedge funds and banks, re-selling oil papers to each other. Nothing is investigated much and their deals can't really be controlled. It sucks, the traders of those papers set the benchmark for oil prices.
So, I guess the gas is cheap right now only because of crisis panic among the big inverstors?
No? В связи с кризисом пока перевозки- настоящие и ожидаемые- снижаются и пока будут снижаться по всему миру, нефть будет дешеветь

[alraytse]

once dollar starts devaluating prices will pick up... which i expect to happen within a few months or a year
****
Devaluation of US dollar or future inflation due to various stimulus packages in Trillion of dollar would work to advantage of holding gold as hedge against inflation or devaluation. That said however I do think crude was in bear market due to economic outlook in US and Europe. However I saw how much other producer countries hedge themselves with PUT options for price of oil, beginning of July
and August in anticipation of the fall of the price of oil. In conclusion I think oil
most likely bottomed here, and I would expect it to go up in January time frame.
By the way, Berzon I do own Citi bank now that I bought it at $4.50, not directly
of course but when I purchased UYG. I also purchased crude, through DXO, and
I am long SPY, by purchasing SSO. I hope we hit the bottom in the stock market
two weeks ago and it's time to be optimistic going further. I am thinking of buying
some gold, but did not pull the trigger yet, since inflation is not here yet and may not be here until sometime next year at lest.

[stud becker]

If you're expecting some sort of conspiracy theory, I am sure TNT will be more than willing to offer his deep intellectual analysis ;) He is an expert.

Price of oil is control mostly by OPEC cartel.
It is not only depended of supply and demand but of conspiracy of OPEC members,
US and Russia. I predicted sharp drop of oil’s price after Russian- Georgian war.
Nobody likes to see bully Russian army intervention. Then two biggest American political parties came with slogan “drill baby, drill” during election campaign
Do you remember latest history how USSR lost Afghan war to Muslim world?
Yes, it was conspiracy between US and Saudy of lowing oil’s price to $8 per barrels.
The same was Arab’s conspiracy oil embargo in 1974 to push oil more then $150 for barrel

[Yanka]

I am thinking of buying
some gold, but did not pull the trigger yet, since inflation is not here yet and may not be here until sometime next year at lest.

У меня в доме есть шкатулка с маленькими ювелирными штучками, включая золотые. Она осталась мне в наследство от умерших тётушек моего мужа. Могу продать. А зачем они вам?

[Yanka]

В связи с кризисом пока перевозки- настоящие и ожидаемые- снижаются и пока будут снижаться по всему миру, нефть будет дешеветь
Какие перевозки? нефти? Она от этого дешевеет? Почему?

[stud becker]

У меня в доме есть шкатулка с маленькими ювелирными штучками, включая золотые. Она осталась мне в наследство от умерших тётушек моего мужа. Могу продать. А зачем они вам?
Ты помнишь друга детства Остапа - Колю Остенбахера,
который пел песню - "у моей любимой есть одна маленькая штучка"?

[Prickol]

Какие перевозки? нефти? Она от этого дешевеет? Почему?я имел ввиду перевозки грузов. Основной спрос на топливо создают грузовики, самолеты, а не авто. Заводы закрываются по всему миру, или переходят на 3-х дневный режим как в России- меньше производят так им меньше материалов подвезут... А сейчас вон у вас там не дай Бог второй виток мортгиджного кризиса начнется- Моллам, большим магазинам нечем оплачивать кредиты... Лифчиков с трусиками им меньше привезут... :cry: :gag:

[Yanka]

я имел ввиду перевозки грузов. Основной спрос на топливо создают грузовики, самолеты, а не авто. Заводы закрываются по всему миру, или переходят на 3-х дневный режим как в России- меньше производят так им меньше материалов подвезут... А сейчас вон у вас там не дай Бог второй виток мортгиджного кризиса начнется- Моллам, большим магазинам нечем оплачивать кредиты... Лифчиков с трусиками им меньше привезут... :cry: :gag:
Aaaa... Lower demand on it suppose to reduce the price, if go by the school textbook.
But they probably have the target amount they got to collect on gas sales. So, they'll raise the price to cover up the shortage in customers. :cry:

[Yanka]

Ты помнишь друга детства Остапа - Колю Остенбахера,
который пел песню - "у моей любимой есть одна маленькая штучка"?

In American culture, similar song is sang by Chuck Berry: "I want you to play with my ding-a-ling".
You would like it.

[Drey]

Какие перевозки? нефти? Она от этого дешевеет? Почему?

he looks on "causation" but not "cause". transportation cost will go down because of cheaper oil and gas but not vise versa.