what's next?

[Drey]

big thanks to Jake to put this separate forum topic on baraban :cheers:

now more than ever we want to hear about economics and talk about what we are up against and how to save / invest our money

so.... what's next in the face of this big problem with credit market (and then to spread to other markets)?

as I see it, the 700 billions "bail out" by governmet might save banking world for now. but the biggest question is whether banks will be lending money to people at "honest" rate to buy cars, houses, refinance?
I hope to see the lending market to come back, but for those with hard cash this might be the best time to invest... is this the time to buy? i think every time Dow goes up and down over 3% on single day signifies and reverse of trend. i think it might be time to buy, what do you think?

[Yanka]

I think yes, I told it already. :)

I don't have money right now, but I'm starting to save for the next big crisis.
I know already some things I gonna buy.
I'll be investing into cloning companies as promissing ones, some new drugs from cancer as risky ones, and burial industry as safe one. :cool: (and don't copy my ideas)

[Нюша]

Drew, How many people on this forum invest? How many people have that kind of expertise? Not too many (I am not one of them:) )

[Iv7]

"How many people on this forum invest? How many people have that kind of expertise? Not too many (I am not one of them )"

ROTFL that's just classic :grin:

[Yanka]

Drew, How many people on this forum invest? How many people have that kind of expertise? Not too many (I am not one of them:) )

C'mon, maybe after conversations with Drew you'll start doing it. ;)

[Нюша]

C'mon, maybe after conversations with Drew you'll start doing it. ;)
Well, he started explaining things to me and then gave up and suggested I read Global Finance for Dummies! :)

I am really a more MACRO econ person. I don't know in detail how the finance sector works....It would be good to learn.

[baraban]

I am really a more MACRO econ person.

Perhaps you could become one after reading one of the books Drew has suggested. :)

[Yanka]

Well, he started explaining things to me and then gave up and suggested I read Global Finance for Dummies! :)

I am really a more MACRO econ person. I don't know in detail how the finance sector works....It would be good to learn.
I had macro econ class too, but I don't think the instuctions were good, even though I got my A. :)
I needed more business-related classes, so this fall I signed up for the night class called Investments. It's fun because 95% of the students in class are boys in their late 20s - early 30s. But as soon as I got interested in this subject, the whole financial thing fell apart. :sad:

[Yanka]

Many people get rid of their stocks and buy farm animals to raise them, kill them and sell for profit. Or I've read one man bought some young wine to make money on it in 10 years.
Many people are running like crazy to Peru to buy a farm there. What do you think?

[Drey]

Drew, How many people on this forum invest? How many people have that kind of expertise? Not too many (I am not one of them:) )


did you read the news that some american lady bought a house on ebay for $1.75? and with the total for her purchase was approx $1,000 with taxes etc... :)
i personally think there are a lot of properties now even in CA that will more than double within 2-3 years

http://www.suntimes.com/business/1197527,CST-NWS-home02.article

[Drey]

C'mon, maybe after conversations with Drew you'll start doing it. ;)

;) after conversation with me you'll start "doing it" and then some hehehe

[Drey]

I had macro econ class too, but I don't think the instuctions were good, even though I got my A. :)
I needed more business-related classes, so this fall I signed up for the night class called Investments. It's fun because 95% of the students in class are boys in their late 20s - early 30s. But as soon as I got interested in this subject, the whole financial thing fell apart. :sad:

...but hopefully the boys are still around LOL so you still got the incentive ;)

[Drey]

wow! Dow is going to test 8,000 level... i would be buying now if i had free cash :) and if it goes lower i would be buying more :)

seams to me that if gov somehow ensures that mortgage rates go low, like 4% for 30yr fixed, the credit market would stabilized real fast even with the new mortgage requirements like 25% down, full disclosure etc...

[Iv7]

um-hu... poetomu u tebya deneg i net. Esli biy u babushki biyl biy @#$, ona biyla biy dedushkoi.. stay away from stocks until market stabilizes, unless you love to play lottery/day trading.

[alraytse]

agreed a buying opportunity of a lifetime. Bought sso today at 29.90 good luck!!!

[Yanka]

um-hu... poetomu u tebya deneg i net. Esli biy u babushki biyl biy @#$, ona biyla biy dedushkoi.. stay away from stocks until market stabilizes, unless you love to play lottery/day trading.
Правильно, Ив. :cheers: Маркет наверное только и держится на таких как ты, которые дёшево продают и потом дорого покупают. :lovey:

[baraban]

wow! Dow is going to test 8,000 level... i would be buying now if i had free cash :) and if it goes lower i would be buying more :)

seams to me that if gov somehow ensures that mortgage rates go low, like 4% for 30yr fixed, the credit market would stabilized real fast even with the new mortgage requirements like 25% down, full disclosure etc...

I see some awesome deals out there on certain stocks, but I still don't think that this is a bottom for the major Indexes. I looked at the current situation compared to the great unwind of the great depression early this week. If all goes according to plan, the DJIA will be plowing a low at 2,000 by the Summer of 2010. If you look at a typical pattern for a bear market, you will also see that it looks like we are less than half way into this bear, which would indicate that we have only dropped less than 1/3 of the way to the bottom. I certainly hope that it will not get so bad this time around, so I would be surprised if DJIA falls below 3,000, but that's only 11 - 500 point drop sessions away!

[Drey]

um-hu... poetomu u tebya deneg i net. Esli biy u babushki biyl biy @#$, ona biyla biy dedushkoi.. stay away from stocks until market stabilizes, unless you love to play lottery/day trading.


:) i said "no free money" dude, there is a difference between free and no money. if you buy always on up market you never learned anything about stocks. i did some buys in my retirement accounts by the way...

[Drey]

I see some awesome deals out there on certain stocks, but I still don't think that this is a bottom for the major Indexes. I looked at the current situation compared to the great unwind of the great depression early this week. If all goes according to plan, the DJIA will be plowing a low at 2,000 by the Summer of 2010. If you look at a typical pattern for a bear market, you will also see that it looks like we are less than half way into this bear, which would indicate that we have only dropped less than 1/3 of the way to the bottom. I certainly hope that it will not get so bad this time around, so I would be surprised if DJIA falls below 3,000, but that's only 11 - 500 point drop sessions away!

i keep my eye lately on NASD and Dow only...

i think regardless of whether we in the long bear market NASD (and 1,200 I see as a strong support) will come back to close that gap at 2,000 it left on the way down a few sessions ago...

as for Dow, i think this crises is not deep depression and Fed and central banks have a lot of tools to use... I see strong support for Dow at somewhere around 7,500. I think market is irrational right now and therefore follows "rules of chaos" :) tech analysis and all sort of Fibonacci numbers with Elliot Waves are probably at best to use at times like this :) i think market is oversold for equities. and shorts (unless they ban them again) will be pushing it down until confedence returns on the equity market, and then it will flip really fast and fly up

[baraban]

i keep my eye lately on NASD and Dow only...

i think regardless of whether we in the long bear market NASD (and 1,200 I see as a strong support) will come back to close that gap at 2,000 it left on the way down a few sessions ago...

as for Dow, i think this crises is not deep depression and Fed and central banks have a lot of tools to use... I see strong support for Dow at somewhere around 7,500. I think market is irrational right now and therefore follows "rules of chaos" :) tech analysis and all sort of Fibonacci numbers with Elliot Waves are probably at best to use at times like this :) i think market is oversold for equities. and shorts (unless they ban them again) will be pushing it down until confedence returns on the equity market, and then it will flip really fast and fly up

The reason I was looking again on Monday how this is playing out vs. the Great Depression is because I see the same forces at play here - deleveraging and demand destruction. The biggest difference is the size of this mess, which is something like 2,000 times (in unadjusted $) bigger than it was 79 years ago only on the US side. The other big difference is the "globalization." So, the potential here is to see a crisis even worse than the Great Depression, but, if world Governments keep doing the "right things" in coordinated efforts long enough, it will not be as bad. This is what I am counting on.

[alraytse]

Agreed with Jake.... I hope they make the right decision this weekend.
Right now it's the only hope. Stay in stocks and don't sell here the bottom
is near I can smell it :):cheers:

[Drey]

Yup... you see, when shxt hits the fence all unions fall apart :) it's hard for the world to agree to act together, but i hope the rational thinking prevails.

Regardless of when things start to improve, we are in different financial world now... government will have a stake in all major commercial banks in Europe and very possibly in US too, and possibly even in some major public companies. And this nationalization happened just over a few weeks... Marx and Lenin are cracking up watching this LOL

[Iv7]

Well, another 4-5% down, *may be* a little closer to the bottom. I sure hope you are glad you didn't have any "free money" yesterday, dude :grin:

Now, talks about "great depression" and markets falling by 80% is just panic. This is what fuels the free fall. Few months from now people may be embarassed they even talked about it... at some point companies will just start going private. ..of course, we may witness the end of our society, as we know it ;)

[Drey]

Well, another 4-5% down, *may be* a little closer to the bottom. I sure hope you are glad you didn't have any "free money" yesterday, dude :grin:

Now, talks about "great depression" and markets falling by 80% is just panic. This is what fuels the free fall. Few months from now people may be embarassed they even talked about it... at some point companies will just start going private. ..of course, we may witness the end of our society, as we know it ;)


:) i am sorry but i dont understand your point of view if you have one... anyhow, I wish you all the best

[Drey]

Stay in stocks and don't sell here the bottom
is near I can smell it :):cheers:

I hope your nose tells the truth hehehehe

Dow is swinging 700 points up and down today on G7 rumors, "day traders where are you?" :grin:

[alraytse]

I hope your nose tells the truth hehehehe

***
told you I could smell the bottom :explode:
and it doesn't take a day trader :hairy:

[baraban]

I hope your nose tells the truth hehehehe

***
told you I could smell the bottom :explode:
and it doesn't take a day trader :hairy:

Today, may have been a short term bottom and there may be a rally next week, but I really don't think this is the bear market bottom.

[Drey]

Today, may have been a short term bottom and there may be a rally next week, but I really don't think this is the bear market bottom.


Jake, i am totally aware of this.
yet i like the chance to compliment the nose ability ;)

[Нюша]

Perhaps you could become one after reading one of the books Drew has suggested. :)

Perhaps, but it's such dry reading that I don't think I'll make it all the way through!!

[Нюша]

I had macro econ class too, but I don't think the instuctions were good, even though I got my A. :)
I needed more business-related classes, so this fall I signed up for the night class called Investments. It's fun because 95% of the students in class are boys in their late 20s - early 30s. But as soon as I got interested in this subject, the whole financial thing fell apart. :sad:Well, I had more than a class in Econ....and from a political stand point, I am well equipped to be a mayor, for example....but I don't have nearly enough knowledge to invest myself.

[Нюша]

Many people get rid of their stocks and buy farm animals to raise them, kill them and sell for profit. Or I've read one man bought some young wine to make money on it in 10 years.
Many people are running like crazy to Peru to buy a farm there. What do you think?
That sounds like a great idea. Will you be on the next plane to Lima? :grin:

[alraytse]

I am well equipped to be a mayor, for example.
***
Mayor of LA or SF?:cheers:

[Нюша]

I am well equipped to be a mayor, for example.
***
Mayor of LA or SF?:cheers:

Nah, something less extravagant...like San Bruno...or Cuppertino :grin:

[Drey]

thought you guys might find it interesting :)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aDjmJpYwglIA&refer=home

an article about reverse outsourcing back to US from China... company in the article saves 3% off cost by producing their product in US vs. China...I thought it would take 10s of years to see the trend reverse... but it took only one resession LOL

[baraban]

thought you guys might find it interesting :)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aDjmJpYwglIA&refer=home

an article about reverse outsourcing back to US from China... company in the article saves 3% off cost by producing their product in US vs. China...I thought it would take 10s of years to see the trend reverse... but it took only one resession LOL

And if this bear market continues along the same lines as those that preceded it, there will be an explosion in demand for those Walmart sleeping bags for the tent cities for the homeless...

[Drey]

And if this bear market continues along the same lines as those that preceded it, there will be an explosion in demand for those Walmart sleeping bags for the tent cities for the homeless...


oh boy... i hope we don't see this :)

on the same token: there is no surprise that companies post bad numbers on earnings after a slump like that... but if credit market is restored, economy will get back on track. yet I would love to see US government to have a realistic plan to not just reduce but rather get rid of national debt and start executing this plan... i don't buy Sarah Palin's promise to get rid of national debt in 4 years if McCain is elected, this will kill what's remaining of economy but to have a realistic 10-20 or 30 year plan would be great to have, approved and admitted for execution. this would restore US dollar and boost foreign investment into US

[Drey]

Nah, something less extravagant...like San Bruno...or Cuppertino :grin:

I think Berkeley will suit you better ;)

[stud becker]

thought you guys might find it interesting :)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aDjmJpYwglIA&refer=home

an article about reverse outsourcing back to US from China... company in the article saves 3% off cost by producing their product in US vs. China...I thought it would take 10s of years to see the trend reverse... but it took only one resession LOL

It is good,
Back up info:
http://www.edn.com/article/CA6605685.html?nid=3351&rid=1050050697

[Alex K]

I am glad for folks here "seeing, or smelling the bottom" of the market, but real estate mess, which is continuing to unwind, suggests less consumer spending, demand for energy and basic materials down the road and into the next year. The financial industry turmoil and freezing of the credit markets undermindes private enterprises, thus creating even higher unemployment. This is a vicious cycle. We are well into the recession, boys and girls and there's no end to it in sight. The volatility of the global markets is unprecedented. This is very bear market and I personally wouldn't throw a good cold cash into the equities now.

[Drey]

I am glad for folks here "seeing, or smelling the bottom" of the market, but real estate mess, which is continuing to unwind, suggests less consumer spending, demand for energy and basic materials down the road and into the next year. The financial industry turmoil and freezing of the credit markets undermindes private enterprises, thus creating even higher unemployment. This is a vicious cycle. We are well into the recession, boys and girls and there's no end to it in sight. The volatility of the global markets is unprecedented. This is very bear market and I personally wouldn't throw a good cold cash into the equities now.


"ne proshlo i pol goda.." :) i think we are soon or may be already started heading out of recession that we got in July 2007, yet we will still see some wild swings on the stock market.

so... how is that "real estate mess, which is continuing to unwind, suggests less consumer spending, demand for energy and basic materials"?

I think real estate at this point doesn't matter that much any more. the worse it could do it's done already: to freeze credit markets.
as soon as credit markets are back in business, even if housing prices continue to fall, real estate market shouldn't cause major problems to economy. unfortunatly "scared" banks wont ease up credit that fast... i think it might take long months or even year(s) to get back to cheaper lending, and business will shrink untill credit market is fixed.

[Alex K]

Real estate matters a lot. First of all, with coming resets in ARM's more and more households will default and houses foreclosed. That will bring banks loses even farther. Less people will need to buy electricity and materials to maintain and restore their dwellings. Thus contunually affecting GDP. Recession is defined by continuos negative GDP growth. Consumption is two/thirds of GDP. With increase in mortgage costs real estate values will continue to decline. Banks are not lending and that will affect the economy in a negative manner. Banks having been stuck with bad portfolios in declining real estate market and surging forclosers will be reluctunt to lend. Real estate does affect confidence of the consumer as well. When real estate was growing consumtion was based not on the savings, but rather on easy availablity of credit. Now with that door shut consumption and week demand for energy and basic materials will contunue to negatively affect GDP. It'll keep us in a prolonged recession, or even depression. No bottom, yet.

[Drey]

Real estate matters a lot. First of all, with coming resets in ARM's more and more households will default and houses foreclosed. That will bring banks loses even farther. Less people will need to buy electricity and materials to maintain and restore their dwellings. Thus contunually affecting GDP. Recession is defined by continuos negative GDP growth. Consumption is two/thirds of GDP. With increase in mortgage costs real estate values will continue to decline. Banks are not lending and that will affect the economy in a negative manner. Banks having been stuck with bad portfolios in declining real estate market and surging forclosers will be reluctunt to lend. Real estate does affect confidence of the consumer as well. When real estate was growing consumtion was based not on the savings, but rather on easy availablity of credit. Now with that door shut consumption and week demand for energy and basic materials will contunue to negatively affect GDP. It'll keep us in a prolonged recession, or even depression. No bottom, yet.

thanks for the "likbez" but i dont think you said much different from what I already implied: no credit market => no economic recovery.

few things though:
Your definition of recession is close to what most people understand by it except you forgot that negative growth should be in 2 consecutive quarters, but even that could be disputed by some folks ;)

Corrected economic indicators come out "post factum" and i think we've been in recession for a while now... despite some government folks' reassurance that "fundamentals of our economy is strong and sound" LOL

what i said about housing prices is that continuing decline in value wont hurt economy as much. I would go even further and say that economic recovery is very possible while house prices are still going down. foreclosures are not caused by decline in market price but rather inability of people to pay their mortgages. that's why we need affordable refinance mortgage rate and for that we need functionable credit market to close the loop.

people that are deep under water with their house equity that even low mortgage rate cannot make it possible for them to pay their mortgage, i think might need to leave their houses and get something that they can afford.

think of it, if your house falls in price but you can pay your mortgage, you wont go for foreclosure. even if your equity in the mortgage goes below 20% but your income, and interest rate still allow you to pay your mortgage - you will stay in the house and wont default on loan. If managed well 700 bln rescue plan should solve the problem and eliminate most of bad mortgages made by people who bought beyond what they can afford.

as for the services and consumption... sure economy is largely depends on it, every 10 year old knows it, but what % of CPI falls specifically on housing prices? close to nothing. "the Consumer Price Index factors is in rising rents, not rising home prices". thanks to Greenspan (whether it’s good or bad) CPI is calculated based on exchangeable services/goods.
http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2005/08/cpi_and_housing.html

so... CPI is not much affected by housing prices. and as long as people have mortgage conditions to refinance or take a loan we should be fine. foreclosures yes, they eliminate demand for housing but lower prices don’t have the same effect.

[Yanka]

My investment teacher said something like this:
the good time to invest is when no one is investing.
For right now, for example, if you want to invest $10,000, don't through in all your money, do $1,000 a month.
good luck

too bad I don't have any money on my own though, with nowhere to borrow. :)

[Yanka]

Real estate matters a lot. First of all, with coming resets in ARM's more and more households will default and houses foreclosed. That will bring banks loses even farther. Less people will need to buy electricity and materials to maintain and restore their dwellings. Thus contunually affecting GDP. Recession is defined by continuos negative GDP growth. Consumption is two/thirds of GDP. With increase in mortgage costs real estate values will continue to decline. Banks are not lending and that will affect the economy in a negative manner. Banks having been stuck with bad portfolios in declining real estate market and surging forclosers will be reluctunt to lend. Real estate does affect confidence of the consumer as well. When real estate was growing consumtion was based not on the savings, but rather on easy availablity of credit. Now with that door shut consumption and week demand for energy and basic materials will contunue to negatively affect GDP. It'll keep us in a prolonged recession, or even depression. No bottom, yet.
:hairy: we are all going straight to hell, ha?

[Alex K]

:hairy: we are all going straight to hell, ha?

Don't worry, you'll be fine! :sunny: Just an opinion that we are far from the bottom.

[baraban]

"ne proshlo i pol goda.." :) i think we are soon or may be already started heading out of recession that we got in July 2007, yet we will still see some wild swings on the stock market.



Well, officially US was not in a recession at least through Q2 of 2008. In fact, I am not sure that we are officially in a recession to this day, although it certainly feels like a recession... Personally, I think it is premature to call an end to it at this point.

BTW, you do recall that there are no recessions under socialism, right? Now that US has nationalized a whole slue of companies and bought large stakes in a bunch of banks, we are well on the way to socialism. All we have to do now is to elect Bardak Osama and he will finish the job of converting Us into a socialist state. Poof - recession gone - just like that! :)

[Alex K]

what i said about housing prices is that continuing decline in value wont hurt economy as much. I would go even further and say that economic recovery is very possible while house prices are still going down. foreclosures are not caused by decline in market price but rather inability of people to pay their mortgages. that's why we need affordable refinance mortgage rate and for that we need functionable credit market to close the loop.




What really matters is the trend and story that is unfolding since 2007 and where all the cumulative indicators (housing data, employment data, manufacturing activity, Fed overnight loans, etc. etc..) leading.
Without solid real estate market there is no solid economy. It's intervowen. The interest rates for home mortgages have gone up with the financial market turmoil and credit crunch. Fed's printing money induces inflation, that's where the mortgage rates are heading. People won't be buying homes because of declining housing prices, rising mortgage rates and jobs lost to recession.

[Yanka]

I liked this one. What do you think? :)

"THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities."

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

[Drey]

Well, officially US was not in a recession at least through Q2 of 2008. In fact, I am not sure that we are officially in a recession to this day, although it certainly feels like a recession... Personally, I think it is premature to call an end to it at this point.

BTW, you do recall that there are no recessions under socialism, right? Now that US has nationalized a whole slue of companies and bought large stakes in a bunch of banks, we are well on the way to socialism. All we have to do now is to elect Bardak Osama and he will finish the job of converting Us into a socialist state. Poof - recession gone - just like that! :)

Jake, dont start me on this... nationalization thing :) but dont turn tables around! there is no doubt that nationalization of corporate America took place on republican watch and has been conducted by republican presedent's nominies: Fed and Treasury chairman and secretary. i am not registered democrate, but for me at this point it is not about democrates and republicans it's a choice between smart and stupid leaders.

and by the way... there were plenty of recessions during USSR time ;) pretty much every time oil went down in price. ussr was not probably the best example though, Sweden is probably better one... econ. cycles do take place but not having recessions not a bad thing seams to me

[Drey]

What really matters is the trend and story that is unfolding since 2007 and where all the cumulative indicators (housing data, employment data, manufacturing activity, Fed overnight loans, etc. etc..) leading.
Without solid real estate market there is no solid economy. It's intervowen. The interest rates for home mortgages have gone up with the financial market turmoil and credit crunch. Fed's printing money induces inflation, that's where the mortgage rates are heading. People won't be buying homes because of declining housing prices, rising mortgage rates and jobs lost to recession.

a lot of what you say i agree... but i do think given we get credit market back, we will get people buying houses.
like with stocks... when a stock goes down, some one has to take a loss. government volonteered yours and mine tax money to cover the loss in hopes to restore crdit market. amin.

[Drey]

I liked this one. What do you think? :)




Buffett is a very smart investor... after all he is the richest person on planet. but besides brain, it takes cash and guts to be Buffett. market might continue been volotile but why not start buying if you have cash and believe that capitalism will stay in this country, unless republicans win the white house...they seam so dumb that nationalizing US economy looks capitalistic to them LOL

[stud becker]

короче, ждите, чта дела после выборов пойдут хуже, чем сейчас.
Что же делать? Вечный вопрос русской интеллигенции.
А как насчет американской?
Аналогия звучит риторическим вопросом - ответом
Какой должен преподаваться иностранный язык в американской школе?
Оптимисты утверждают, что это испанский, песимисты - китайский,
а реалисты предлагают учить детишек как пользоваться руским АК47

[Drey]

короче, ждите, чта дела после выборов пойдут хуже, чем сейчас.
Что же делать? Вечный вопрос русской интеллигенции.
А как насчет американской?
Аналогия звучит риторическим вопросом - ответом
Какой должен преподаваться иностранный язык в американской школе?
Оптимисты утверждают, что это испанский, песимисты - китайский,
а реалисты предлагают учить детишек как пользоваться руским АК47

what language has to do with economy :puzzled:

[Yanka]

what language has to do with economy :puzzled:
The choice of a foreign language to study is often connected to politics and economics of the country :puzzled: :)

[Drey]

The choice of a foreign language to study is often connected to politics and economics of the country :puzzled: :)
........
how so?

[Yanka]

........
how so?
For example, Eastern European population studied Russian at schools during Soviet occupation.
Studying German was popular in Russia during Nazy times.
During past years, as Chinese economy grows at such pace, Mandarin is in big demand in American colleges.

[Drey]

For example, Eastern European population studied Russian at schools during Soviet occupation.
Studying German was popular in Russia during Nazy times.
During past years, as Chinese economy grows at such pace, Mandarin is in big demand in American colleges.

and how did it or does it change economic's "расклад"?

[Yanka]

and how did it or does it change economic's "расклад"?
It doesn't change it, but indicates it.

[Drey]

It doesn't change it, but indicates it.

what does it indicate?

[Yanka]

what does it indicate?

Which way the fears or the greed of a country go, of course.

[Drey]

Which way the fears or the greed of a country go, of course.


you saying you feel more or less capitalistic depending on language you speak?

[Yanka]

you saying you feel more or less capitalistic depending on language you speak?

No, I'm saying that economics/politics determine the popularity of particular languages.

[Drey]

No, I'm saying that economics/politics determine the popularity of particular languages.

ok... and how this translates to language impacting economy?

[Yanka]

ok... and how this translates to language impacting economy?
people who learned the languages in demand can get good jobs as interpriters, which reduces unemployment a little. :)

[Drey]

people who learned the languages in demand can get good jobs as interpriters, which reduces unemployment a little. :)

ok, i got it, on individual level it makes sense. but how is it different from learning new skills and getting a profession that is more in demand and pays well?

[Yanka]

ok, i got it, on individual level it makes sense. but how is it different from learning new skills and getting a profession that is more in demand and pays well?
I didn't mean individual level.
It makes sense on macro-level because strong demand in some foreign language creates many jobs on large scale, and it somewhat improves the economical situation of a country. :)
Maybe the future of America is in producing well-trained Mandarin interpreters. :grin:

[Drey]

I didn't mean individual level.
It makes sense on macro-level because strong demand in some foreign language creates many jobs on large scale, and it somewhat improves the economical situation of a country. :)
Maybe the future of America is in producing well-trained Mandarin interpriters. :grin:

give an example of such "large scale" economic change in real life. laws of economics like math, you can speak chinese but it does change the way economy opetates

[Yanka]

give an example of such "large scale" economic change in real life. laws of economics like math, you can speak chinese but it does change the way economy opetates

Ok, for example, in 2006 there was a study on effects on the European Union economy of shortages of foreign language skills. They looked at 29 European states. Across the sample of 2,000 businesses, 11% of respondents had lost a contract as a result of lack of language skills, valued between 8 million to 13.5 million euro. And 46% of that sample make plans to enter new export markets in nearest future.

[Drey]

Ok, for example, in 2006 there was a study on effects on the European Union economy of shortages of foreign language skills. They looked at 29 European states. Across the sample of 2,000 businesses, 11% of respondents had lost a contract as a result of lack of language skills, valued between 8 million to 13.5 million euro. And 46% of that sample make plans to enter new export markets in nearest future.

it is a good example.

when US starts integration with Mexico, french canada etc into one market with one currency and no entry visas then language skills will help some businesses however it wont change the way economy works

[Yanka]

it is a good example.

when US starts integration with Mexico, french canada etc into one market with one currency and no entry visas then language skills will help some businesses however it wont change the way economy works

I heard a joke once: If a person speaks two languages, he is bilingual. If he speaks three languages, he is trilingual. If he speaks one language, he is American. :)

Once again, I didn't say new languages change the economy. I said new languages often are picked to study for economical reasons. :cool:

[Drey]

I heard a joke once: If a person speaks two languages, he is bilingual. If he speaks three languages, he is trilingual. If he speaks one language, he is American. :)

Once again, I didn't say new languages change the economy. I said new languages often are picked to study for economical reasons. :cool:

you said a lot of differet things ;)

как у Булгакова: кто понимает слово "история" как наука, а кто как "рассказ"


ok, i'm tired to talk about language economics LOL

[Yanka]

ok, i'm tired to talk about language economics LOL
finally :cheers:

[Drey]

interesting to read about people making market predictions working from their vacation homes and getting it right... ;)


http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ammB5sriS.A0&refer=home

[Yanka]

interesting to read about people making market predictions working from their vacation homes and getting it right... ;)


http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ammB5sriS.A0&refer=home
In my investment class I was studying all kinds of methods to predict the market. The hem-line analysis killed me. It is noticed that when mini-skirts are in fashion, market is bullish.
This summer many girls started to wear really long dresses, down to their shoes. I guess this theory is right. :rolleyes:

[Drey]

In my investment class I was studying all kinds of methods to predict the market. The hem-line analysis killed me. It is noticed that when mini-skirts are in fashion, market is bullish.
This summer many girls started to wear really long dresses, down to their shoes. I guess this theory is right. :rolleyes:


where you've been hanging out? :eek:
mini is everywhere in SF :) and me like it even more after reading your prediction :cheers:

[Drey]

Thought it was interesting that finally it was formally acknowledged that US entered recession in Dec 2007...

Recession in U.S. Started in December 2007, NBER Says


By Timothy R. Homan and Steve Matthews

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy entered a recession in December 2007, the panel that dates American business cycles said today.

The declaration was made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private, nonprofit group of economists based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The last time the U.S. was in a recession was from March through November 2001, according to NBER.

[Yanka]

When they officially announce it, does it mean we are already at the bottom of the graph and things are about to go up again?

[Drey]

When they officially announce it, does it mean we are already at the bottom of the graph and things are about to go up again?

yup ;) usually that's the case

[stud becker]

When they officially announce it, does it mean we are already at the bottom of the graph and things are about to go up again?
are you talking about bottom of mini-skirt?

[Rozka]

Thought it was interesting that finally it was formally acknowledged that US entered recession in Dec 2007...

Recession in U.S. Started in December 2007, NBER Says


By Timothy R. Homan and Steve Matthews

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy entered a recession in December 2007, the panel that dates American business cycles said today.

The declaration was made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private, nonprofit group of economists based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The last time the U.S. was in a recession was from March through November 2001, according to NBER.


Really huh... A few weeks ago an old gas-bag Rush Limbaugh declared that
"Obama recession has officially started, ladies and gentlemen". :grin:

[Drey]

Really huh... A few weeks ago an old gas-bag Rush Limbaugh declared that
"Obama recession has officially started, ladies and gentlemen". :grin:

the road to current recession was paved a while back, a country can use "credit card" as long as it generates income and shows growth, building national debt out proportion was done by Bush's administration and having the same policy would be digging even deeper hole for the country

[Nucking Futs]

When they officially announce it, does it mean we are already at the bottom of the graph and things are about to go up again?

If you flip the graph upside down, the bottom looks like the crest. More positive thinking, my dear.

[Nucking Futs]

the road to current recession was paved a while back, a country can use "credit card" as long as it generates income and shows growth, building national debt out proportion was done by Bush's administration and having the same policy would be digging even deeper hole for the country

I blame the Jews. Back in middle ages they were the first ones in Europe to charge interests on loans paving the way for the modern financial system.

[Drey]

I blame the Jews. Back in middle ages they were the first ones in Europe to charge interests on loans paving the way for the modern financial system.


nope. the first ones were templar knights.

[Nucking Futs]

nope. the first ones were templar knights.

They also built the Great Pyramids. No, wait, those were the Egyptians. I always get them mixed up. Anywho, Templars invented the deposit/withdrowal/money wiring system as we know it today. You could deposit your 100 guldens in, say, Dutch Republic and withdraw them after you finish your Crusader's trip in Holy Land. Jews were the first ones in Europe to charge interest on money they loaned. Although, by Tora they were prohibited from charging fellow Jews. The church prohibited charging interests altogether... not for long though.

[Nucking Futs]

I think this is pretty accurate, read on: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_banking

[Drey]

They also built the Great Pyramids. No, wait, those were the Egyptians. I always get them mixed up. Anywho, Templars invented the deposit/withdrowal/money wiring system as we know it today. You could deposit your 100 guldens in, say, Dutch Republic and withdraw them after you finish your Crusader's trip in Holy Land. Jews were the first ones in Europe to charge interest on money they loaned. Although, by Tora they were prohibited from charging fellow Jews. The church prohibited charging interests altogether... not for long though.

templars were charging interest on depositis. or you think they were issuing "travelers checks" for free? ;) besides after crusades they set money depositing system that was pretty close to what we have nowadays in commercial banks... their close involvement in garding Jerusalem and surroundings served some as an example of how to make money on money and there were others that followed their "model". but if you want to look at earlier times, yes, Romans were doing it too :) and sumerians and i am sure some others as well... so... dont blame just one nationality LOL

throwing in some speculative thoughts :) you ever wondered why Swiss has templar cross on their flag and has been the center of world banking system for all these times? and why swiss guards are in vatican? templars by the way always recongized only one ruler above them: vatican's pope and no one else.

[Nucking Futs]

I think you confuse fees and interests.

[Drey]

I think you confuse fees and interests.

just words play... and if if fees are based on interest, daily or monthly... but if you like arguing, go ahead i think its not really that important, jewish didnt invent neither % nor interest any way...

[baraban]

When they officially announce it, does it mean we are already at the bottom of the graph and things are about to go up again?

That's how it has been in recent history, but it really doesn't look like it will be this way in the future. I have just started a new website StockValues.Org (http://stockvalues.org) that has some information on financial topics like these. Of course, you are welcome to contribute your thoughts, as well.

[Yanka]

That's how it has been in recent history, but it really doesn't look like it will be this way in the future. I have just started a new website StockValues.Org (http://stockvalues.org) that has some information on financial topics like these. Of course, you are welcome to contribute your thoughts, as well.
Berzon Street Journal :cheers:
I added it to my favorites.

[Nucking Futs]

just words play... and if if fees are based on interest, daily or monthly... but if you like arguing, go ahead i think its not really that important, jewish didnt invent neither % nor interest any way...

Yeah, and that thing you eat for breakfast every morning... $hit... I mean, cereal, pardon my French. It's just a words play, right? It's all organic, what comes in one end, comes out the other, slightly chemically altered. ;)

[Drey]

Yeah, and that thing you eat for breakfast every morning... $hit... I mean, cereal, pardon my French. It's just a words play, right? It's all organic, what comes in one end, comes out the other, slightly chemically altered. ;)

i dont know what you eat every morning, but i dont consume neither $hit nor cereal :grin: instead of getting personal why dont get specific?

so.. you saying that jewish invented interest rate on monetary deposits? have any prove?

[Nucking Futs]

i dont know what you eat every morning, but i dont consume neither $hit nor cereal :grin: instead of getting personal why dont get specific?

so.. you saying that jewish invented interest rate on monetary deposits? have any prove?

I didn't say they invented anything. I said they were the first ones in post-Roman (i.e. protomodern Europe) to charge interests on loans and money exchanges while Christians were prohibited from doing so by the church. This was a so-to-say basis for modern credit system and impending mortgage disaster we're experiencing now. Templars, on the other hand, charged fees for the services like transporting money across the Midetirenian or safekeeping it while the owner was doing his Crusading. This was the basis for banking and money wiring. Of course, the whole argument is oversimplified but the conversation was started as a joke :P

[Drey]

I didn't say they invented anything. I said they were the first ones in post-Roman (i.e. protomodern Europe) to charge interests on loans and money exchanges while Christians were prohibited from doing so by the church. This was a so-to-say basis for modern credit system and impending mortgage disaster we're experiencing now. Templars, on the other hand, charged fees for the services like transporting money across the Midetirenian or safekeeping it while the owner was doing his Crusading. This was the basis for banking and money wiring. Of course, the whole argument is oversimplified but the conversation was started as a joke :P

yeah ok, generally I agree. the first were making money on lending, the latter were charging for transaction: withdrawal aka ATMs. as for sub-prime disaster.. I blaimed just peoples' greed...

[Yanka]

yeah ok, generally I agree. the first were making money on lending, the latter were charging for transaction: withdrawal aka ATMs. as for sub-prime disaster.. I blaimed just peoples' greed...
What's wrong with being greedy? Without any greed the progress would stop I think.

[stud becker]

What's wrong with being greedy? Without any greed the progress would stop I think.
if you are gready to somebody else -it is OK.
but if somebody else is gready to you - it is bad

[Drey]

What's wrong with being greedy? Without any greed the progress would stop I think.


i like the idea that progress is driven by lust for creativity and sex drive LOL :rolleyes:

[Yanka]

i like the idea that progress is driven by lust for creativity and sex drive LOL :rolleyes:
you are a progressive man then? :)

[Yanka]

if you are gready to somebody else -it is OK.
but if somebody else is gready to you - it is bad
you sound jewish :cool:

[stud becker]

you sound jewish :cool:
with russian accent

[Drey]

you are a progressive man then? :)

hmmm i'd say yes LOL

[Yanka]

hmmm i'd say yes LOL
You mean you're greedy for creativity and sex? :) Greed is moving the progress then.

[Drey]

You mean you're greedy for creativity and sex? :) Greed is moving the progress then.

i wouldn't call it greed... :)

[Yanka]

i wouldn't call it greed... :)
One of definitions of greedy is "extremely eager or desirous".
So, you are not very progressive then. :rolleyes:

[Drey]

One of definitions of greedy is "extremely eager or desirous".
So, you are not very progressive then. :rolleyes:


LOL ...and you are not qualified to give such definitions, вот. :tongue:

(psss... are you very progressive?) LOL

[Yanka]

LOL ...and you are not qualified to give such definitions, вот. :tongue:

(psss... are you very progressive?) LOL
I took the definition from "The American Heritage College Dictionary", fourth edition :cool:

(sometimes I am, but it's none of your concern, right? ) :rolleyes:

[Drey]

I took the definition from "The American Heritage College Dictionary", fourth edition :cool:

(sometimes I am, but it's none of your concern, right? ) :rolleyes:


wow, i must be popular if "The American Heritage College Dictionary" defines whether I am progressive or not LOL

PS it's never been my concern, just pure curiosity :grin:

[Yanka]

wow, i must be popular if "The American Heritage College Dictionary" defines whether I am progressive or not LOL

PS it's never been my concern, just pure curiosity :grin:
No, you are not that popular. Dictionary explains what the word "greedy" might mean, it didn't mention you.

whatever ;)

[Drey]

No, you are not that popular. Dictionary explains what the word "greedy" might mean, it didn't mention you.

Out of pure curiosity, how is Yoko Ono? Did you stop it or you're about to marry her?

didn't mention me? oh well... i guess i have to rely on your qualification to fit me into dictionary definition :)

all personal questions via email please :cool:

[Yanka]

didn't mention me? oh well... i guess i have to rely on your qualification to fit me into dictionary definition :)

all personal questions via email please :cool:
I don't think I'll ever work for dictionaries. I worked for phone book once, that's enough for me.

Yeah, I edited the post already, I donno what do I need your personal life for. I wanted to disapprove you. :)

[Alex K]

big thanks to Jake to put this separate forum topic on baraban :cheers:

now more than ever we want to hear about economics and talk about what we are up against and how to save / invest our money

so.... what's next in the face of this big problem with credit market (and then to spread to other markets)?

as I see it, the 700 billions "bail out" by governmet might save banking world for now. but the biggest question is whether banks will be lending money to people at "honest" rate to buy cars, houses, refinance?
I hope to see the lending market to come back, but for those with hard cash this might be the best time to invest... is this the time to buy? i think every time Dow goes up and down over 3% on single day signifies and reverse of trend. i think it might be time to buy, what do you think?

I don't think so.

The auto or bank gov. bailout is irrelevant, 3 to 6 months from now the same entities are going to ask for money with hat in hand because their business model hasn’t changed and the money they received was spent in a non optimal way. Does it matter what the reported unemployment number is? Does it matter if we bailout Detroit? Jobless claims have hit a 26-year high last week. Get used to more unemployed that won't be driving new cars. After the 1st of the year, get used to more retail bankruptcy's, more warehouse closings, commercial failures, small business layoffs and bankruptcy's. This won't sell homes or cars, so get used to it. Get used to a much lower standard of living. Get used to politicians, from counties, states and on up to the White House to take a different stand on many things that were said to buy vote. We live in a bubble. Invest in it? Thanks, but no, thanks.

[Drey]

I don't think so.

The auto or bank gov. bailout is irrelevant, 3 to 6 months from now the same entities are going to ask for money with hat in hand because their business model hasn’t changed and the money they received was spent in a non optimal way. Does it matter what the reported unemployment number is? Does it matter if we bailout Detroit? Jobless claims have hit a 26-year high last week. Get used to more unemployed that won't be driving new cars. After the 1st of the year, get used to more retail bankruptcy's, more warehouse closings, commercial failures, small business layoffs and bankruptcy's. This won't sell homes or cars, so get used to it. Get used to a much lower standard of living. Get used to politicians, from counties, states and on up to the White House to take a different stand on many things that were said to buy vote. We live in a bubble. Invest in it? Thanks, but no, thanks.

"get used to" is the word of the day? :)

yeah, ok... some time passed since that my post..

sure it doesn't look optimistic on macro level, and capitalism as we knew it, is probably over for the next few years, and we will eventually have a different one instead. just like after a bubble in 20s, but i don't think it's the end of the world... those lucky ones that sold their stocks 6 months ago and bought them back last week will probably disagree with you but hey... lets re-visit this post in a few months again, may be they would be in loss too ;)

[stud becker]

"get used to" is the word of the day? :)

yeah, ok... some time passed since that my post..

sure it doesn't look optimistic on macro level, and capitalism as we knew it, is probably over for the next few years, and we will eventually have a different one instead. just like after a bubble in 20s, but i don't think it's the end of the world... those lucky ones that sold their stocks 6 months ago and bought them back last week will probably disagree with you but hey... lets re-visit this post in a few months again, may be they would be in loss too ;)
Rich peaple have to put somewhere their stinky money.
where will they invest?? real estate? comodity? hiTech? new energy sources?

[Drey]

Rich peaple have to put somewhere their stinky money.
where will they invest?? real estate? comodity? hiTech? new energy sources?

timing is everything right now... to answer yr question look for next bubble, what is really expensive the last few weeks: it's US gov bonds... short term US gov bills sold at record high prices even with negative interest: people and businesses run for safety, trying to preserve what they have instead of investing... this should change. and it's a million $ question "when?" :)

[Yanka]

Rich peaple have to put somewhere their stinky money.
where will they invest?? real estate? comodity? hiTech? new energy sources?
Just give it to the charities :)

[Нюша]

Rich peaple have to put somewhere their stinky money.
where will they invest?? real estate? comodity? hiTech? new energy sources?

That's the big question! I am wrecking my brains on this one too!

Personally, I would risk and put my money in venture capital which supports tech projects! But not the sissy tech projects like twitt(url)y.com (stupid site...a leach off twitter.com), but real technology....some breakthroughs that are having a hard time finding a sponsor in these hard economic times! After all, CISCO and Microsoft both started out during a recession. It's the best time to do it! Utilize on the absence of competition! IMHO.

[Yanka]

That's the big question! I am wrecking my brains on this one too!

Personally, I would risk and put my money in venture capital which supports tech projects! But not the sissy tech projects like twitt(url)y.com (stupid site...a leach off twitter.com), but real technology....some breakthroughs that are having a hard time finding a sponsor in these hard economic times! After all, CISCO and Microsoft both started out during a recession. It's the best time to do it! Utilize on the absence of competition! IMHO.
I would consider buying a llama farm in Peru. :cool:

[Нюша]

I would consider buying a llama farm in Peru. :cool:


Peru is not really in great shape right now either....they just had a big earthquake a few months ago and the indigenous people from the "resource-reach" regions (mainly gas) are becoming more and more restless about not getting their fair share of resource revenues.

Paraguay seems to be a better bet. They recently elected themselves a president whose job right before being elected was a PRIEST! Hopefully, he will have a bit of a conscience and fear of god! :)

[stud becker]

Just give it to the charities :)
They did, investing in cruck Madoff.
They losted everything

[Нюша]

They did, investing in cruck Madoff.
They losted everything

Did you see? First victim - some french banker committed suicide today (cut his veins in his Manhattan apartment)! In the great depression, the suicide rate among professionals was very high.

[Rozka]

Peru is not really in great shape right now either....they just had a big earthquake a few months ago and the indigenous people from the "resource-reach" regions (mainly gas) are becoming more and more restless about not getting their fair share of resource revenues.

Paraguay seems to be a better bet. They recently elected themselves a president whose job right before being elected was a PRIEST! Hopefully, he will have a bit of a conscience and fear of god! :)

How about Argentina? They've recently elected themselves a new president-a wife of a previous president( good looking broad I must say), which there's nothing wrong with-elections were free and fair and she's the legitimate president.
But there's quite a few similarities with one other country I can think of ;)
Deep nationalistic attitudes, crony capitalism and kleptocracy...

How about Bolivia? They've recently elected a neo-marxist president...

Ever consider Venezuela?:grin: Yet another country whose source of revenue is based on natural resources and whose economy is totally dependent on oil prices...

[Нюша]

How about Argentina? They've recently elected themselves a new president-a wife of a previous president( good looking broad I must say), which there's nothing wrong with-elections were free and fair and she's the legitimate president.
But there's quite a few similarities with one other country I can think of ;)
Deep nationalistic attitudes, crony capitalism and kleptocracy...

How about Bolivia? They've recently elected a neo-marxist president...

Ever consider Venezuela?:grin: Yet another country whose source of revenue is based on natural resources and whose economy is totally dependent on oil prices...

Totally! Christina is hot! I can't help but think that such beautiful people are not meant to run the world! It's like she's TOO good looking to be a president! And she is actually proving my point with her actions...did you hear, she renationalized private social security? Argentina (and other South American countries) had a problem in the 20th century - dictators would use the social security savings of average citizen to finance things the country didn't need and then would declare a default and people would lose their savings. Then a smart president (can't remember his name) came to power and said "enough"! He privatised social security so that people can be sure they will have an income at retirement.

Now Argentina is not doing very well. They have declined further IMF help (because that would hurt their pride) and exports are down. Plus Christina pissed off the farmers by trying to raises tariffs on exports of grain. They boycotted for 6 months and she had to cave.

So she thought to herself - "Where can i get a bunch of money and quickly to finance populace gestures and rekindle people's love for me?" Oh, let's nationalize the social security fund and spend it frivilously!

So that's where is at right now! Spending the retirement money of average Argentinians! Nice, huh?

Conclusion: Only ugly people should rule the world!

[Нюша]

Actually that's a good topic.....can anyone think of a more or less successful good looking (high profile) politician?

I guess one can argue that Reagan was good looking and successful (fall of Soviet Union, etc). Who else? Thatcher was ugly. Blair wasn't really successful (he left office with low approval ratings). Brown is neither at this point: succesful nor good looking. Lenin - bold (although damn successful - reached near God-like status). Stalin - nah. Mao - no! Sakozy - big nose. Merkel - big butt. Berlusconi - too sleazy. Putin - no comment! Medvedev - adorable, but not successful.

Let's think of some more together?

[VolvoDriver]

Bill Clinton?

[Yanka]

Bill Clinton?
Yap, he's my type. :)
What about our Terminator?
What are the criterias that let us call a politician successful?

[Rozka]

Totally! Christina is hot! I can't help but think that such beautiful people are not meant to run the world! It's like she's TOO good looking to be a president! And she is actually proving my point with her actions...did you hear, she renationalized private social security? Argentina (and other South American countries) had a problem in the 20th century - dictators would use the social security savings of average citizen to finance things the country didn't need and then would declare a default and people would lose their savings. Then a smart president (can't remember his name) came to power and said "enough"! He privatised social security so that people can be sure they will have an income at retirement.

Now Argentina is not doing very well. They have declined further IMF help (because that would hurt their pride) and exports are down. Plus Christina pissed off the farmers by trying to raises tariffs on exports of grain. They boycotted for 6 months and she had to cave.

So she thought to herself - "Where can i get a bunch of money and quickly to finance populace gestures and rekindle people's love for me?" Oh, let's nationalize the social security fund and spend it frivilously!

So that's where is at right now! Spending the retirement money of average Argentinians! Nice, huh?

Conclusion: Only ugly people should rule the world!

Argentina...The country with such a great potential. In 1920s it was the second largest economy in Western hemosphere( after the US). They still consider themselves the United States of South America. But we all know what happened.

Neo-fascist military juntas, nationalistic zealotry majorly phucked them up. As I've pointed out before it's a well-established historic fact: totalitarian rule means no accountability of power that naturally breeds corruption. No true free market development is possible under such conditions. Besides that....People resort to nationalism when they have nothing else going for them;) ( Tipa "a zato u nas pesni xoroshie").

[Rozka]

"Only ugly people should rule the world".

Disagree. Ugly people are very unhappy personally. They are less likely to get a job, to keep a job, they are less likely to get laid, they are generally not as successful in life as good-looking people. But they are more likely to use their political office to gain personal wealth and priviledges...

By the way...My personal experience ( and I am sure male-posters here will agree with me) : good looking chicks are happy, they are smiling all the time while fat ugly homely broads are rude and miserable. Just an observation. :)

[baraban]

Actually that's a good topic.....can anyone think of a more or less successful good looking (high profile) politician?

I guess one can argue that Reagan was good looking and successful (fall of Soviet Union, etc). Who else? Thatcher was ugly. Blair wasn't really successful (he left office with low approval ratings). Brown is neither at this point: succesful nor good looking. Lenin - bold (although damn successful - reached near God-like status). Stalin - nah. Mao - no! Sakozy - big nose. Merkel - big butt. Berlusconi - too sleazy. Putin - no comment! Medvedev - adorable, but not successful.

Let's think of some more together?

Sarkozy is great, succesful and... his wife isn't complaining about his nose - perhaps it is right-sized! :)

[Rozka]

Actually that's a good topic.....can anyone think of a more or less successful good looking (high profile) politician?

I guess one can argue that Reagan was good looking and successful (fall of Soviet Union, etc). Who else? Thatcher was ugly. Blair wasn't really successful (he left office with low approval ratings). Brown is neither at this point: succesful nor good looking. Lenin - bold (although damn successful - reached near God-like status). Stalin - nah. Mao - no! Sakozy - big nose. Merkel - big butt. Berlusconi - too sleazy. Putin - no comment! Medvedev - adorable, but not successful.

Let's think of some more together?

(zhena) Bill Clinton

[Solominka]

(zhena) Bill Clinton

I heard Yeltcin was a looker - in his early days, that is, before he came to power:)

[Rozka]

I heard Yeltcin was a looker - in his early days, that is, before he came to power:)

He came to real power in his late 50s-early 60s so he definitely passed his prime as a looker:puzzled: He was certainly driven by his ambitions and desire for power( just like every other politician), yet I believe he had good intentions.

His reign however was overshadowed by total incompetence of the people he surrounded himself with and the system of crony oligarchical capitalsim and corruption.

[Solominka]

He came to real power in his late 50s-early 60s so he definitely passed his prime as a looker:puzzled: He was certainly driven by his ambitions and desire for power( just like every other politician), yet I believe he had good intentions.

His reign however was overshadowed by total incompetence of the people he surrounded himself with and the system of crony oligarchical capitalsim and corruption.

He wasn't exactly competent himself either - plus, he spent most of his reigning time in the drunken oblivion...

[stud becker]

He wasn't exactly competent himself either - plus, he spent most of his reigning time in the drunken oblivion...
I think two men politicians were most successful in 20 centuries:
One nice looking was Regan, defeating evil impair without war.
Second ugly one was Churchill, saving England, and leading coalition of nations to defeat Nazi Germany and fascism

[Rozka]

I think two men politicians were most successful in 20 centuries:
One nice looking was Regan, defeating evil impair without war.
Second ugly one was Churchill, saving England, and leading coalition of nations to defeat Nazi Germany and fascism
Didn't Churchill say " if you are in your 20s and not a liberal you have no heart, and if you are in your 40s and still a liberal you have no brain" ?:grin:

[stud becker]

Didn't Churchill say " if you are in your 20s and not a liberal you have no heart, and if you are in your 40s and still a liberal you have no brain" ?:grin:
You are still have a heart, would you?
it is much better then heart attack.
and nobody cares about brain any more

[Нюша]

Bill Clinton?

На любителя. Мне он всегда нравился - но больше его харизма чем внешность! а тебе?;)

[Нюша]

Yap, he's my type. :)
What about our Terminator?
What are the criterias that let us call a politician successful?
Mr. BlackBlack is damn ugly! Are you kidding?

Successful? Hmmmm - that's a good question. Perhaps "leaving a legacy" (good or bad - doesn't matter, but s/he was successful).

[Нюша]

"Only ugly people should rule the world".

Disagree. Ugly people are very unhappy personally. They are less likely to get a job, to keep a job, they are less likely to get laid, they are generally not as successful in life as good-looking people. But they are more likely to use their political office to gain personal wealth and priviledges...

By the way...My personal experience ( and I am sure male-posters here will agree with me) : good looking chicks are happy, they are smiling all the time while fat ugly homely broads are rude and miserable. Just an observation. :)

Can you and your wife get separate log ins? Please....

[Нюша]

Sarkozy is great, succesful and... his wife isn't complaining about his nose - perhaps it is right-sized! :)

Or perhaps she married him because her modeling/singing career was nowhere and the man was the leader of one of the G8 countries? :gag:

[Нюша]

I heard Yeltcin was a looker - in his early days, that is, before he came to power:)

http://img1.liveinternet.ru/images/attach/b/0/11035/11035093_767696789.jpg

The man was hot!

[Drey]

http://img1.liveinternet.ru/images/attach/b/0/11035/11035093_767696789.jpg

The man was hot!

wow i'd say use this for compain борьбы с алкоголизмом. "before" and "after" ;)

[baraban]

Can you and your wife get separate log ins? Please....


That would be great!

[Нюша]

That would be great!

Aren't the violating some sort of a forum rule? May be there should one!

[Drey]

ran across an interesting chart... http://simplycharts.files.wordpress.com/2007/03/dowgoldratio2006.jpg

according to the gold to Dow ration we shopuld be bottoming out in 2009...

[baraban]

ran across an interesting chart... http://simplycharts.files.wordpress.com/2007/03/dowgoldratio2006.jpg

according to the gold to Dow ration we shopuld be bottoming out in 2009...

According to that chart it doesn't look like we are even close - perhaps 2020.

[Drey]

According to that chart it doesn't look like we are even close - perhaps 2020.

i was about the support level, not recovery :) for recovery (next bubble) u are right, probably another 10 yrs ;)

[baraban]

Drew, here is an article I know you will really enjoy: http://seekingalpha.com/article/117618-turning-japanese-the-audacity-of-reality-part-1-of-3

[Drey]

Drew, here is an article I know you will really enjoy: http://seekingalpha.com/article/117618-turning-japanese-the-audacity-of-reality-part-1-of-3

interesting article. thanks. lots of facts, summary and conclusions that are debatable and somehow i think this article is quite a bit politicized;) but over all very interesting

[baraban]

interesting article. thanks. lots of facts, summary and conclusions that are debatable and somehow i think this article is quite a bit politicized;) but over all very interesting

I respect the guy for putting all this work into an article and taking a stand. Whether he is right or wrong, I have no idea, but he does make many good points along the way. Why do you think that it is politicized?

[Drey]

I respect the guy for putting all this work into an article and taking a stand. Whether he is right or wrong, I have no idea, but he does make many good points along the way. Why do you think that it is politicized?

he did make a good job posting this, dont get me wrong. i think that it is politicized because he mentioned in negative way Obama's economic plan for recovery while we all know the recovery plan hasnt been annonced yet and it doesnt mean it wont change if results are negative. i agree with some of his points of suggestions but methods could be different. but mainly i agree with one thing :) we are heading for huge inflation in the future if plan of jump starting economy with borrowed money doesnt work ;)

[baraban]

I think his point is that the only plan that can work now would involve the use of time travel. Since that's not going to happen, the Government might as well just sit back and enjoy the ride, because anything they do will only make matters worse at this point. Unless we have a war that wipes out a large % of consumers and keeps production capacity in place, once the economy stabilizes, inflation will pick up drastically. Anyone who thinks that they can control an economy open loop is a fool that doesn't understand control systems. And anyone that thinks that they can control economy with predictable results short term in a closed loop fashion is delusional, because they obviously do not understand the implications of system delays on their ability to do that. I am thinking that I need to write an article about that and send it to the White House - I hope they will be able to follow the math...

[stud becker]

I think his point is that the only plan that can work now would involve the use of time travel. Since that's not going to happen, the Government might as well just sit back and enjoy the ride, because anything they do will only make matters worse at this point. Unless we have a war that wipes out a large % of consumers and keeps production capacity in place, once the economy stabilizes, inflation will pick up drastically. Anyone who thinks that they can control an economy open loop is a fool that doesn't understand control systems. And anyone that thinks that they can control economy with predictable results short term in a closed loop fashion is delusional, because they obviously do not understand the implications of system delays on their ability to do that. I am thinking that I need to write an article about that and send it to the White House - I hope they will be able to follow the math...

I like your analogy of economy with closed loop control system.
Closed loop control system is barely working in technical word. I mean working, if you are so accurate with your component’s models, having only few loops.
There is very fine edge between working good and disaster of out control oscillation.
You had better adjust only one parameter in the time to get lucky.
How could this analogy apply to economy, where million of related parameters and events?

[Drey]

I am thinking that I need to write an article about that and send it to the White House - I hope they will be able to follow the math...
yeah, you do it! :) :grin: sure they'll listen

inflation is an old good way to get rid of debt without much of an effort... :) and who will get screwed? the creditors (mostly foreign countries) and investors (pension funds,individuals and asset mng). i kind of see this happening: first "lets invest using debt to jump start economy and buy back and reduce debt later", then "issuing more debt didn't help, lets get rid of debt by printing money and hiking inflation and later when economy is strong make dollar stronger etc etc" basically whatever they do right now will be bad with a promise to correct it later they might just as well do nothing

[Yanka]

That article seems logical and truthful to me.
I don't think it's politicised. With a different president elected it would still be almost the same.

[Yanka]

yeah, you do it! :) :grin: sure they'll listen

inflation is an old good way to get rid of debt without much of an effort... :) and who will get screwed? the creditors (mostly foreign countries) and investors (pension funds,individuals and asset mng). i kind of see this happening: first "lets invest using debt to jump start economy and buy back and reduce debt later", then "issuing more debt didn't help, lets get rid of debt by printing money and hiking inflation and later when economy is strong make dollar stronger etc etc" basically whatever they do right now will be bad with a promise to correct it later they might just as well do nothing
So, it's no point paying off the credit cards right now? :) Money won't worth anything soon, any way?

[baraban]

How could this analogy apply to economy, where million of related parameters and events?

That's exactly the point. The Government is trying to mock with several parameters at the same time and doesn't wait to see what results their actions cause. So, what they are really doing is injecting immense additional signals in an already destabilized control system. This can not do anything, except to destabilize the control system further. Anybody that claims that they know what will happen as a result of the doubling of the money supply in such a situation is is either lying through his rotten teeth, is very insane, is incredibly naive or simply gambling (usually with other people's money).

yeah, you do it! :) :grin: sure they'll listen

inflation is an old good way to get rid of debt without much of an effort... :) and who will get screwed? the creditors (mostly foreign countries) and investors (pension funds,individuals and asset mng). i kind of see this happening: first "lets invest using debt to jump start economy and buy back and reduce debt later", then "issuing more debt didn't help, lets get rid of debt by printing money and hiking inflation and later when economy is strong make dollar stronger etc etc" basically whatever they do right now will be bad with a promise to correct it later they might just as well do nothing

Yes, that's true. But there is another side to this coin. Every insurance company in the world invests almost exclusively in debt. Their payout ratios are 1:1, in general, and they only make money on interest. So, playing this game will put all of them out of business. that includes your auto, life and health insurance companies. How do you like them apples?

So, it's no point paying off the credit cards right now? :) Money won't worth anything soon, any way?

I would not count on hyperinflation just yet. Inflation will definitely hit, but nobody has any idea when it will happen. Here is another article that you folks may enjoy: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong.html

[Yanka]

Наверняка от кризиса гораздо лучше страдать в США, чем в Китае или России.

[Drey]

Наверняка от кризиса гораздо лучше страдать в США, чем в Китае или России.
that is unless you have mortgage and no job :) actually i think this ressession is easy to "time travel" in russia or china ;)

[stud becker]

that is unless you have mortgage and no job :) actually i think this ressession is easy to "time travel" in russia or china ;)
I do have two morgages and no job.
Do i have to blame Obama or jews?

[baraban]

Наверняка от кризиса гораздо лучше страдать в США, чем в Китае или России.

Будем надеяться, что так оно и будет продолжаться.

[Yanka]

I do have two morgages and no job.
Do i have to blame Obama or jews?
Marry someone who has a job. That's what I do for living.

[stud becker]

Marry someone who has a job. That's what I do for living.

I did it in past
I marred my ffff. employers

[Rozka]

I do have two morgages and no job.
Do i have to blame Obama or jews?
Actually Rush Limbaugh has already called it an "Obama recession". :)
I mean, Obama hasn't taken his first sh*t in The White House, but the wing-nuts already started blaming him for everything....

[Drey]

I do have two morgages and no job.
Do i have to blame Obama or jews?

start from yourself. meaning.. you are a jew, right? :) j/k

what I meant to say is that countries less dependant on credit and with more social programs probably wont feel the pain as much. i think if the bottom really falls off in US, it might get real ugly. americans have not had recent depression and enjoyed worry free life for a long time, a generation or two already grew up without knowing how to coop with real trouble, and US doesn't really have any working social programs to manage such risks.... so welcome to the capitalism :) if you didn’t manage to get rich then you will get more poor ;) i think the worse this crisis gets the more socialistic US will get, on the flip side when things start improving it will go into privatization...

[stud becker]

start from yourself. meaning.. you are a jew, right? :) j/k

what I meant to say is that countries less dependant on credit and with more social programs probably wont feel the pain as much. i think if the bottom really falls off in US, it might get real ugly. americans have not had recent depression and enjoyed worry free life for a long time, a generation or two already grew up without knowing how to coop with real trouble, and US doesn't really have any working social programs to manage such risks.... so welcome to the capitalism :) if you didn’t manage to get rich then you will get more poor ;) i think the worse this crisis gets the more socialistic US will get, on the flip side when things start improving it will go into privatization...
No, i am sure, that I am real one right now.
I was not even circumcised yet. And I grew with continues troubles in past.

[baraban]

Actually Rush Limbaugh has already called it an "Obama recession". :)
I mean, Obama hasn't taken his first sh*t in The White House, but the wing-nuts already started blaming him for everything....

As long as the sh*t sticks, I guess! :)

[Drey]

so... the early signs of recovery been posted by all major indexes, S&P 500 exceeded 1,000 first time since November 2008, DOW well above 9,000 again. major financials reporting big profits... recovery one might say.... or is it recovery?

big financials made big $ on turning around fed money they got practically for free, and this done without major shift in unfreezing loans and credit for individuals. meanwhile the tax revenue at the lower level since great depression http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090804/ap_on_go_ot/us_plummeting_taxes
i wonder if this temp. relieve actually brings recovery...
seams to me that US is paying big price for the free trade theory that it has been advocating allowing US and not only US firms to stay competitive on farely open US market by moving capital, manufacturing and r&d to cheaper labor markets.
since other major world economies are not in a hurry to follow US with free trade rules, US will continue to suffer from lacking manufacturing growth and therefor lack of income growth per capita... so eventually US dollar will suffer.
now with growing social security debt, growing negative fed balance due to pumping money in financial system (without much changing it, in hopes to revive things the way they were before), how the US government will maintain this huge debt? 2 obvious ways come to mind (military spending is outruled as a dead end unless we want to have goverment-military state) either to raise productivity and achieve production growth (and therefor receive more in return in tax revenues) or to print more money. the first way is the hard one. there is no new innovations that would trigger booms like .com (green technologies at this point dont seam like the boom material plus US is loosing competitive edge by moving r&d to overseas) and US gov hasnt change anything yet to shift the trend in production/manufacturing in the US. and i think if it doesnt do it very soon we'd be reserved to the second choice which will bring only temporary relive btw.

[Nucking Futs]

This is a good news indeed. Time to get a brand-new 16 liter SUV, a couple of houses on a subprime loan and max out my credit cards again. Good times are a-coming!

[Drey]

This is a good news indeed. Time to get a brand-new 16 liter SUV, a couple of houses on a subprime loan and max out my credit cards again. Good times are a-coming!

:) obviously the opposite (if you read the post to the end)... however, if inflation picks up, then slaries will pick up eventually too. then, it wouldn't look so dumb if you get 2 more leveraged houses right now since inflation will eat up most of your mortgage debt :idea:

[Nucking Futs]

:) obviously the opposite (if you read the post to the end)... however, if inflation picks up, then slaries will pick up eventually too. then, it wouldn't look so dumb if you get 2 more leveraged houses right now since inflation will eat up most of your mortgage debt :idea:

That's what I always do when the economy blooms. I mean, good times never end, right? You buy and you buy, you spend and you spend and it only gets better. Sweet.

[Yanka]

:) obviously the opposite (if you read the post to the end)... however, if inflation picks up, then slaries will pick up eventually too. then, it wouldn't look so dumb if you get 2 more leveraged houses right now since inflation will eat up most of your mortgage debt :idea:
I hate it when inflation picks up. :(

[Pablo]

I hate it when inflation picks up. :(

The inflation is high, the unemployement is high, Mike Phelps is high ...