Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now owned by government

[Drey]

Call it a bailout, or a rescue, care now firmly under the grip of the U.S. government as Fannie and Freddie are bancrupt and under chapter 11...

ironically this happens on republican watch as they scare americans that democrats will make US a socialistic country ;) oh well...
interesting that according to cnn news " in addition to US borrowers' defaults and credit crises, "central banks of Russia and China - started selling Fannie and Freddie bonds fast. That made it harder, and more expensive, for Fannie and Freddie to raise money."

...so what will happen to the mortgage rates and real estate prices? will we continue with spiral of climbing real estate prices now that US tax payers are fully responsible for paying off Fannie and Freddie bonds? or is it yet to see the end of downfall? i think the mortgage rates might get lower a little for nearest future but on the long run i dont see helping.... i think it's a catch 22: boosting real estate market and prices with taxpayers money lol...

for those that wonder how Fannie and Freddie worked here's a simple summary from cnn article: "Banks loan money to home buyers. The banks then sell those mortgages - assuming they meet certain credit standards - to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

Banks then use the money they get from the sale of those mortgages to make new loans. Fannie and Freddie, meanwhile, bundle those loans, attach a payment guarantee to them, and resell them as bonds.

"They (banks) might issue the mortgage on Monday and sell it in the secondary market to Fannie and Freddie on Tuesday, and then Fannie and Freddie is putting it together in a mortgage backed security, selling it a week, two weeks later," said Dean Baker, an economist who is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. "So they're incredibly important institutions."

The system provided a continuous supply of relatively low-interest cash, allowing banks to keep making affordable loans to home buyers. Banks loan money to home buyers."

What is you take on the future of real estate market in US after this government bailout?

[Yanka]

I think the government should have stay out of it. Bailing bad loans out gives the "bad loaners" and "bad borrowers" permission to keep making bad transactions in a future.
The government should have let zero-down-people suffer, and after a few difficult years the market would recover. Helping them is just postponing the recovery.
I guess all this "help" to "homeowners" and to whoever ended up with the bad bonds is just some kind of corruption between the government and bankers?

Am I making any sence? :)

[Drey]

I think the government should have stay out of it. Bailing bad loans out gives the "bad loaners" and "bad borrowers" permission to keep making bad transactions in a future.
The government should have let zero-down-people suffer, and after a few difficult years the market would recover. Helping them is just postponing the recovery.
I guess all this "help" to "homeowners" and to whoever ended up with the bad bonds is just some kind of corruption between the government and bankers?

Am I making any sence? :)


the problem is no longer with sub-prime loans etc...problem is that if these two companies cannot pay off their obligations (bonds) the whole mortgage market is dead. properties are overvalued due to mortgage loans, ask yourself how many people would be able to pay these prices in cash... if people (and i am talking about folks with jobs and good credit) cannot secure a loan, this real estate market is doomed, what costs now $800k would go to be $80k. somebody has to pay for all the hype in housing prices and they choose US government to bai it out lol which will prolong the agony but would it solve the problem?! how government can support infinite housing prices growth? yup, by printing or borrowing money since taxes don't cover our huge national debt, with current "men in charge" it's been proven that government cannot manage the budget without getting into debt or inflation... it looks pretty gloomy if you ask me...

[Нюша]

I think the government should have stay out of it. Bailing bad loans out gives the "bad loaners" and "bad borrowers" permission to keep making bad transactions in a future.
The government should have let zero-down-people suffer, and after a few difficult years the market would recover. Helping them is just postponing the recovery.
I guess all this "help" to "homeowners" and to whoever ended up with the bad bonds is just some kind of corruption between the government and bankers?

Am I making any sence? :)

I kinda agree. Like, I couldn't afford a house on my salary, so I didn't buy one. Those that didn't think about the consequences, got the subprime loan and hoped that the market would go up enough so that they could sell and make a profit. And now they are whining about how they are losing their house! Well....what were you thinking when you bought a house you clearly couldn't afford? :rolleyes:



the problem is no longer with sub-prime loans etc...problem is that if these two companies cannot pay off their obligations (bonds) the whole mortgage market is dead. properties are overvalued due to mortgage loans, ask yourself how many people would be able to pay these prices in cash... if people (and i am talking about folks with jobs and good credit) cannot secure a loan, this real estate market is doomed, what costs now $800k would go to be $80k. somebody has to pay for all the hype in housing prices and they choose US government to bai it out lol which will prolong the agony but would it solve the problem?! how government can support infinite housing prices growth? yup, by printing or borrowing money since taxes don't cover our huge national debt, with current "men in charge" it's been proven that government cannot manage the budget without getting into debt or inflation... it looks pretty gloomy if you ask me...

I think houses SHOULD cost $80k. At least there is a possibility then that a middle income family can save for 3-7 years and actually afford the house.

Re: spending - we need a liberitarian in office for a term and the debt will be lowered. Let's all vote for the Barr/Root ticket (FYI: that's their prez/VP ticket). :)

[baraban]

They should have stayed out of it. But if they did, most money market funds would colapse and many banks would need to recapitalize. There would not be enough new cash to do that, so most of these banks would go belly up and once they do, FDIC would have to step in and pay the guarantees, which would take even more cash. They are doing the best they can. Damned if they do, damned if they don't...

[Drey]

They should have stayed out of it. But if they did, most money market funds would colapse and many banks would need to recapitalize. There would not be enough new cash to do that, so most of these banks would go belly up and once they do, FDIC would have to step in and pay the guarantees, which would take even more cash. They are doing the best they can. Damned if they do, damned if they don't...


yes, i think it would go that way...
also, i wonder where it goes on the long run. Right after news market rallied since mortgage market got US government warrantee but it seams fundamentally wrong to bailout failing business with taxpayers' money... sure they can save the highly priced market for now but going forward would US government have to price in all real estate growth into US budget.
however if US government didn’t step in now, I agree it would be really painful for the next few years and crises would most certainly go from mortgage to treasuries and the whole US economic system could have the worse time ever.. yet I think this bailing out measure is temporary and i don’t think it solves the problem going a few years forward

[Yanka]

Some newspaper compared this bailout to the movie about Bearnie: how two young guys tried to make their dead boss look alive.

[Drey]

Some newspaper compared this bailout to the movie about Bearnie: how two young guys tried to make their dead boss look alive.

:) yup. and in our case taxpayers are paying for this "look alive". or may be what we now have in US is the beginning of the realization of the socialist's dream: everyone will get free housing: government will be giving away credit to buy and at the same time will be taxing people to payoff their own loans, the real estate prices continue to grow, everyone is happy, ...state go bancrupt but it will take a while to get there, as long as money printing machine is working we will be safe LOL

[baraban]

yes, i think it would go that way...
also, i wonder where it goes on the long run. Right after news market rallied since mortgage market got US government warrantee but it seams fundamentally wrong to bailout failing business with taxpayers' money... sure they can save the highly priced market for now but going forward would US government have to price in all real estate growth into US budget.
however if US government didn’t step in now, I agree it would be really painful for the next few years and crises would most certainly go from mortgage to treasuries and the whole US economic system could have the worse time ever.. yet I think this bailing out measure is temporary and i don’t think it solves the problem going a few years forward

How could anybody disagree with this analysis?!
From here, the choices are clear: 1. socialism or 2. poverty.
Obama would prefer choice #1 and McCain - choice # 2.
Most of us who have escaped socialism once, prefer poverty and McCain. :)

Only not even McCain is going to be brave enough to let the economic pieces fall where they may...

[alraytse]

it's called corporate welfare! :puzzled:

[Yanka]

I think the newprinted taxpayers money will be dissolved somewhere among the bondholders, and poor subprime borrowers will loose their homes any way, plus all of us will suffer from inflation.
This bailout is more like sending lots of money towards crazy % on the credit card without ever being able to pay it off.

I think american government is no better than russian. Crooks. This thing started to remind me bunch of "investment" offers to russian citizens back somewhat 15 years ago in Russia.
:) Btway, I remember each russian person was getting a vaucher, it was a big sum of money written on it, but I couldn't spend it, and couldn't really understand what I was supposed to do with that peace of paper. Did anyone get to use it? what was it? (I was not much into business/economics back then.)

[baraban]

I think the newprinted taxpayers money will be dissolved somewhere among the bondholders, and poor subprime borrowers will loose their homes any way, plus all of us will suffer from inflation.
This bailout is more like sending lots of money towards crazy % on the credit card without ever being able to pay it off.

I think american government is no better than russian. Crooks. This thing started to remind me bunch of "investment" offers to russian citizens back somewhat 15 years ago in Russia.
:) Btway, I remember each russian person was getting a vaucher, it was a big sum of money written on it, but I couldn't spend it, and couldn't really understand what I was supposed to do with that peace of paper. Did anyone get to use it? what was it? (I was not much into business/economics back then.)

You are getting the gist of it, although the details are not quite right...

To date, US treasury has never expanded the money supply simply by printing more bills. That's not how they do it. What they do instead, is allow financial institutions to lend more money than they have. (That's what capital ratios are about.)

Financial institutions are permitted to leverage, so they can give out loans for more money than they have. These financial institutions can then securitize some loan debt and sell it to other financial institutions, which could use these securities to fulfill some of their capital ratio requirements and so it goes on and on...

This works pretty darn well when collateral assets are appreciating. When the underlying assets start to depreciate, leverage quickly increases to levels that people consider unsafe. (Of course, by its very definition, any leverage is unsafe to begin with, but that's another bedtime story.) So, the whole house of cards begins to collapse.

What the treasury department is attempting to do (and this is pretty much the only thing they can do) is hold the cards at the bottom (first Bear Stearns and now Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). This can not and will not stop the wind from blowing down the cards at the top of this flimsy contraption i.e. highly leveraged individual borrowers. Any representation that this is being done for "the people" is politically motivated and has no real substance.

Your observation that "American government is no better than Russian" is subjective. An objective way to philosophize on this issue is to notice that every government is self serving i.e., they all have interests that go well beyond serving the best interests of their people. So, there is nothing new under the sun...

[Drey]

How could anybody disagree with this analysis?!
From here, the choices are clear: 1. socialism or 2. poverty.
Obama would prefer choice #1 and McCain - choice # 2.
Most of us who have escaped socialism once, prefer poverty and McCain. :)


there is caveat to choice #2: continuous hatred towards russia and therefore russians. also, i am not democrate but i dont agree that #1 choice leads to socialism, as we know it. as i said nationalisation of Freddie ad Funnie
takes place on republican watch, no matter what republicans say facts speak for themselves

[Yanka]

Well, I think the financial institutions that made unreasonable deals deserve to collapse. Every lost personal bank account supposed to be reimbursed up to $100,000 (by the government :) ), so, the simple people won't die from hunger. The money would stop loosing its buying power, the houses would become more affordable, and practices of making loans and re-selling them would become more ethical.
What would be the negative sides of such changes? :grin:

[Drey]

Well, I think the financial institutions that made unreasonable deals deserve to collapse. Every lost personal bank account supposed to be reimbursed up to $100,000 (by the government :) ), so, the simple people won't die from hunger. The money would stop loosing its buying power, the houses would become more affordable, and practices of making loans and re-selling them would become more ethical.
What would be the negative sides of such changes? :grin:

the problem is that in the situation as it is there would be no "practices of making mortgage loans re-selling". how would you lure people into buying mortgage bonds at decent price if they are worthless. ultimately it's good to have true value of loans and houses however since Freddie and Fannie bought most of the mortgage loans and re-sold them it's too late to go back and figure that the loans shouldn't have been made in the first place. letting them go bankrupt would be good in theory but in reality there is nothing to replace them = total economic failure on election year... who will be buying bank mortgage loans and reselling them? there is nobody at this time who would take this kind of "deal" plus central bank wouldn't trust 100% private companies to have such huge exposure on health of American economy... i see it as catch 22, where government helps real estate market and real estate market ultimately brings liability to government. credit economy is a tricky thing...if there is no confidence everyone runs for cover and hopes for gold standard to come back LOL :)

[Yanka]

the problem is that in the situation as it is there would be no "practices of making mortgage loans re-selling". how would you lure people into buying mortgage bonds at decent price if they are worthless. ultimately it's good to have true value of loans and houses however since Freddie and Fannie bought most of the mortgage loans and re-sold them it's too late to go back and figure that the loans shouldn't have been made in the first place. letting them go bankrupt would be good in theory but in reality there is nothing to replace them = total economic failure on election year... who will be buying bank mortgage loans and reselling them? there is nobody at this time who would take this kind of "deal" plus central bank wouldn't trust 100% private companies to have such huge exposure on health of American economy... i see it as catch 22, where government helps real estate market and real estate market ultimately brings liability to government. credit economy is a tricky thing...if there is no confidence everyone runs for cover and hopes for gold standard to come back LOL :)
I was just trying to understand "wasappening". :)
What's wrong with going back to gold standards? The economic failure would last just a couple of years, until new creditor-figures emerge, right?
It seems that such changes are unavoidable sooner or later. No?
Catch 22 was followed by Closing Time. :cool:

[Drey]

I was just trying to understand "wasappening". :)
What's wrong with going back to gold standards? The economic failure would last just a couple of years, until new creditor-figures emerge, right?
It seems that such changes are unavoidable sooner or later. No?

nope, they cannot cover all the money with gold at the present values, it would result in major inflation or US government going bankrupt, in either case US government would loose all credit ranking, nobody would trust US bonds and wont buy them (which by the way might teach them a lesson about being solvable) ;)

[Drey]

hmm... i wonder what is the next major bubble on the market? what is inflated as much as real estate was (still is in some areas)?

I hope that I am wrong but to me treasuries look awfully bad and resemble huge bubble about to explode... add to all these bailouts our huge national debt = as soon as someone major starts dumping gov bonds...there will be no bottom anywhere soon

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5yQoLaUYCsc&refer=home

[Drey]

I was just trying to understand "wasappening". :)
What's wrong with going back to gold standards? The economic failure would last just a couple of years, until new creditor-figures emerge, right?
It seems that such changes are unavoidable sooner or later. No?
Catch 22 was followed by Closing Time. :cool:


also... what really screwy is that government didn't raise cash reserve requirements for Freddie and Fannie when real estate market tripled in price, that would help avoid situation we are in now. another good question: Bush cabinet was waiting to the very last moment and objected government intervention until it was too late... why? 8 more years of the same BS and this country will be on the right track to happy socialism lead by republicans

[Yanka]

also... what really screwy is that government didn't raise cash reserve requirements for Freddie and Fannie when real estate market tripled in price, that would help avoid situation we are in now. another good question: Bush cabinet was waiting to the very last moment and objected government intervention until it was too late... why? 8 more years of the same BS and this country will be on the right track to happy socialism lead by republicans
who you gonna vote for?

[baraban]

who you gonna vote for?

It's a tough choice. I want McCain to swap his VP choice for Obama's. :)

[Drey]

who you gonna vote for?

i am not 100% sure yet, and will watch how it goes and what the candidates say (and they will say whatever will bring them the white house...)
but right now: tell you what... it is sad government structure when a huge state's economic and political, and social etc directions depends on one person... would it be president or prime minister etc... sure it is better than in a lot of countries however too much power to one person is always bad... in given choice right now, i will vote probably for first african american or more precise: Kenyan american LOL candidate. I know he is not perfect and I dont tell people to vote for him, but i dont trust republicans at all after this administration, plus McCain looks like a looser to me... the only thing he could manage is to get "energized" by a younger female in campaign LOL way to go, i bet Merc (or whoever is maker of Viagra) will show nice profits ;)

[baraban]

Do you trust ANY politician?!

[Drey]

Do you trust ANY politician?!

hahaha tell it to the millions of those that trust McCain's "change"

when elected cabinet based on republican party platform promises better and stronger country and in result we get the opposite, to me: the leading forces/party (whatever you call it) are not capable to deliver.

[Yanka]

i am not 100% sure yet, and will watch how it goes and what the candidates say (and they will say whatever will bring them the white house...)
but right now: tell you what... it is sad government structure when a huge state's economic and political, and social etc directions depends on one person... would it be president or prime minister etc... sure it is better than in a lot of countries however too much power to one person is always bad... in given choice right now, i will vote probably for first african american or more precise: Kenyan american LOL candidate. I know he is not perfect and I dont tell people to vote for him, but i dont trust republicans at all after this administration, plus McCain looks like a looser to me... the only thing he could manage is to get "energized" by a younger female in campaign LOL way to go, i bet Merc (or whoever is maker of Viagra) will show nice profits ;)

:( I wanna democrats to win too, thought I don't like Obama.

But I think McCain will be chosen.
wanna bet? :)

[Drey]

:( I wanna democrats to win too, thought I don't like Obama.

But I think McCain will be chosen.
wanna bet? :)

hahah how naif of you to offer me a bet that i predicted a year ago, that americans wont elect neither a woman nor african american. i am not voting to fall within the margin

[Yanka]

hahah how naif of you to offer me a bet that i predicted a year ago, that americans wont elect neither a woman nor african american. i am not voting to fall within the margin

I won't vote either, still didnt' bother to apply for citizenship.

[Drey]

I won't vote either, still didnt' bother to apply for citizenship.

well.. actually this is very mature of your. if you are not ready to vote you shouldnt be a citizen

[Yanka]

well.. actually this is very mature of your. if you are not ready to vote you shouldnt be a citizen

:grin: :grin:

Are you making any plans to move out US yet?

[Drey]

:grin: :grin:

Are you making any plans to move out US yet?

:) if every one that thinks different runs away what would be with the country? you'd be walking the streets full of George Jr and such... wouldn't that be nice?


or you think everyone who is not in agreement with ruling party should be out of US? lol in a way that would be "bring back USSR in US" :)

[stud becker]

hmm... i wonder what is the next major bubble on the market?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5yQoLaUYCsc&refer=home
Probably oil .....and hi tech will go up back, i hope

[Drey]

They should have stayed out of it. But if they did, most money market funds would colapse and many banks would need to recapitalize. There would not be enough new cash to do that, so most of these banks would go belly up and once they do, FDIC would have to step in and pay the guarantees, which would take even more cash. They are doing the best they can. Damned if they do, damned if they don't...


yup... its not over yet, and run on banks can still take place and might will... what a weekend: Lehman goes down, Merrill now goes to Bank of America, who's next?!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080915/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown

[Drey]

Probably oil .....and hi tech will go up back, i hope

oil is back to $100 wont go much lower... and after elections slowly will go up i think (but if it goes lower then we have even worse economic situation)...
hi tech? its not a bubble, but US debt and financing it, is a huge bubble...scary shxt ;)

will Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley survive, the last 2 big investment banks? i think they will fall too... who would be the buyer?!

[baraban]

I expect GS to survive.

[Drey]

they both good companies but... they fund themselves with REPOs... well... i hope you are right since if they fall there will be no more independent investment banks.

[Нюша]

nope, they cannot cover all the money with gold at the present values, it would result in major inflation or US government going bankrupt, in either case US government would loose all credit ranking, nobody would trust US bonds and wont buy them (which by the way might teach them a lesson about being solvable) ;) well, can you honestly tell me that you think that the US gov't will someday actually repay the 9 trillion dollar debt? Especially since we haven't even balanced the budget yet and are still acruing more every year! :gag:

We need to balance the budget by increasing the retirement age and by creating one subsidized health care scheme (not necessarily free for all, but cutting down on the myriad of patch-work programs and their bureacracy). Moreover, we need to pass election reform laws - outlawing lobbying in general (because what is lobbying in effect, if not a legalized form of bribery).

But can you really imaging a politician running for the presidency with these policies? I will increase the number of years you will have to work before you'll retire (piss off all the baby boomers). I'll combine gov't health programs (piss off the the insurance lobby). I'll institute campaign and election reform (piss off every lobbyist and lobby)! And I'll balance the budget (put everyone to sleep).

Yeah - it's much more effective to run on issues such as whether or not to burn the American flag or whether gays should be allowed to wed! :rolleyes:

ooohhh - now I am getting emotional and excited (not in a good way). Don't even get me started! :mad:

[Нюша]

oil is back to $100 wont go much lower... and after elections slowly will go up i think (but if it goes lower then we have even worse economic situation)...
hi tech? its not a bubble, but US debt and financing it, is a huge bubble...scary shxt ;)

will Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley survive, the last 2 big investment banks? i think they will fall too... who would be the buyer?!

My mother called me yesterday and told me that Washington Mutual is apparently going out of business. Is that true? Does anyone know?

I know there is FDIC insurance, but do I really want the hassle? Plus will I be able to get my money back if I am not in the US? Plus, will I be able to open a bank account without physically being at the branch? :confused:

[Drey]

My mother called me yesterday and told me that Washington Mutual is apparently going out of business. Is that true? Does anyone know?

I know there is FDIC insurance, but do I really want the hassle? Plus will I be able to get my money back if I am not in the US? Plus, will I be able to open a bank account without physically being at the branch? :confused:

Nush, convert all you can in rubbles, deposit in Sberbank and sit tight :) LOL

WM is not yet formally bankrupt but looks like they will be next to fall, Moody's ranked them below investment grade, they are running out of options to get cash..

[Drey]

My mother called me yesterday and told me that Washington Mutual is apparently going out of business. Is that true? Does anyone know?

I know there is FDIC insurance, but do I really want the hassle? Plus will I be able to get my money back if I am not in the US? Plus, will I be able to open a bank account without physically being at the branch? :confused:


your mom can open joint account in some other bank and you can transfer funds on-line from wamu.com

hope you have enough time to do it...

[Yanka]

your mom can open joint account in some other bank and you can transfer funds on-line from wamu.com

hope you have enough time to do it...

What about Wells Fargo, anyone knows? And US bank?

Are we heading into the Great Depression?

[Yanka]

Nush, convert all you can in rubbles, deposit in Sberbank and sit tight :) LOL



самым надёжным будет открыть счёт в банке из-под кофе, зарытой дома в цветочном горшке.

[Drey]

What about Wells Fargo, anyone knows? And US bank?

Are we heading into the Great Depression?

wells is ok so far... but they have tons of mortgages too... will see.

dont laugh but this is the worse banking crises since great depression according to a lot of well known economists. the good thing the rest of (besides banking) economy doesnt see effect yet and lets hope it stays this way.

[Yanka]

Well, I, personally, got something good out of these Fannie and Freddie problems. The thing is, everybody were saying "catch 22, catch 22!" I thought: what the f is catch 22? is it some kind of senate resolution? But it turned out to be a book, I looked into it, and I think it's the first american fiction book I got to love. :grin:

[Миледи]

Drew, how do you check government rating for specific bank?

[Yanka]

Drew, how do you check government rating for specific bank?

google? :)

[Drey]

Well, I, personally, got something good out of these Fannie and Freddie problems. The thing is, everybody were saying "catch 22, catch 22!" I thought: what the f is catch 22? is it some kind of senate resolution? But it turned out to be a book, I looked into it, and I think it's the first american fiction book I got to love. :grin:


LOL welcome to the world hehehe

[Drey]

Drew, how do you check government rating for specific bank?

you can check it on bloomberg or reuters. but you probably need to work at company that has terminal... search Moody's rating on their web site, they might publish it on-line as well

[stud becker]

wells is ok so far... but they have tons of mortgages too... will see.

dont laugh but this is the worse banking crises since great depression according to a lot of well known economists. the good thing the rest of (besides banking) economy doesnt see effect yet and lets hope it stays this way.
Никто не разрабатывал теорию заговора американского правителства с местными банкирами, чтобы подставить правительственных спекулянтов из красного китая и рашки, держаюих большое количество стоков Фани Май?
Они потеряли милиарды баксов на этом тоже.
Когда америка чихает у всего мира начинается простуда

[Drey]

Никто не разрабатывал теорию заговора американского правителства с местными банкирами, чтобы подставить правительственных спекулянтов из красного китая и рашки, держаюих большое количество стоков Фани Май?
Они потеряли милиарды баксов на этом тоже.
Когда америка чихает у всего мира начинается простуда

whatever... and by the way its not cough any more its more like chocking at this point ;)


next time you want to educate yourself on economics check what surplus russia has in gold and currencies and then compare it with US debt, then check on china, japan and then ask yourself what happens if china, japan, saudies and russia sell their investments in US treasuries.

as for their losses in Fannie and Freddie, they are not holding their stocks :) they hold their bonds... and now you, me and the rest of the US tax payers will be paying them, since thats exactly what Fed secured: return on Freddie and Fannie bonds to holders.

i hope all this crosses your mind when you go vote for the next 8 years of the same "economics"...
cheers

[Нюша]

Nush, convert all you can in rubbles, deposit in Sberbank and sit tight :) LOL
.

I wish I could...I get direct deposit in USD into an Am. bank. :(


WM is not yet formally bankrupt but looks like they will be next to fall, Moody's ranked them below investment grade, they are running out of options to get cash..

Can you tell me where I can read more about the status of this and keep an eyes on it? May be a link or something...

[Нюша]

Никто не разрабатывал теорию заговора американского правителства с местными банкирами, чтобы подставить правительственных спекулянтов из красного китая и рашки, держаюих большое количество стоков Фани Май?
Они потеряли милиарды баксов на этом тоже.
Когда америка чихает у всего мира начинается простуда

Why? Did the banks default on their obligations? Why did the Chinese and Russians lose money?

[Drey]

Can you tell me where I can read more about the status of this and keep an eyes on it? May be a link or something...

there are a lot of web sites. go to bloomberg.com and type: wm

in the field called "Enter symbol". then click on news etc...

as for yr direct deposit, you can set it to any am bank, right? citi bank has retail offices and ATMs in moscow, talk to them if you can directly access yr american citi bank checking from their moscow offices...

[Yanka]

wells is ok so far... but they have tons of mortgages too... will see.

dont laugh but this is the worse banking crises since great depression according to a lot of well known economists. the good thing the rest of (besides banking) economy doesnt see effect yet and lets hope it stays this way.

Some people say that our depression won't be as bad as it was in 30-s. That is if you have some good assets and some good stuff to sell around the world.
Do you have any of those? Then you'll be ok.

[Drey]

Some people say that our depression won't be as bad as it was in 30-s. That is if you have some good assets and some good stuff to sell around the world.
Do you have any of those? Then you'll be ok.

hehe i dont think anyone will starve etc but a lot of people loose their money, jobs, and investments...the latter mostly due to weak dollar and inflation. but eventually stock market will fly high...again... ;)

[stud becker]

whatever... and by the way its not cough any more its more like chocking at this point ;)


next time you want to educate yourself on economics check what surplus russia has in gold and currencies and then compare it with US debt, then check on china, japan and then ask yourself what happens if china, japan, saudies and russia sell their investments in US treasuries.

as for their losses in Fannie and Freddie, they are not holding their stocks :) they hold their bonds... and now you, me and the rest of the US tax payers will be paying them, since thats exactly what Fed secured: return on Freddie and Fannie bonds to holders.

i hope all this crosses your mind when you go vote for the next 8 years of the same "economics"...
cheers
Я не в курсах об экономике россии, где самый богатый человек в мире является ее де факто диктатором.
привожу только сегодняшнюю статейку, подкрепляющее мой предыдущий пост

http://www.mignews.com/news/economics/cis/160908_232005_32036.html

Кремль спешно ищет пути выхода из экономического тупика

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16.09 23:10 MIGnews.com

Чиновники Кремля, правительства и Центробанка РФ вместе с главами крупнейших банков уже несколько часов обсуждают в Белом доме возможные действия в связи с кризисом, охватившим российские рынки капитала, сообщили Reuters несколько источников, знакомых с подготовкой совещания.

По словам одного из них, на совещании, которое ведет первый вице-премьер Игорь Шувалов, присутствуют глава Центробанка Сергей Игнатьев и его первый заместитель Алексей Улюкаев, министр финансов Алексей Кудрин, министр экономразвития Эльвира Набиуллина, а также помощник президента РФ по экономическим вопросам Аркадий Дворкович.

Другой источник, знакомый с ходом встречи, сказал, что на ней также присутствует глава Сбербанка Герман Греф.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Известно, что меньше чем за месяц после окончания грузинской войны более
чем 20 миллиардов баксов иностранных инвесторов срочно были изъяты из русской экономики. это наверное только начало краха русских Новых финансовых Васюков в москве, которые новые русские богачи хлестались создать там

[Yanka]

hehe i dont think anyone will starve etc but a lot of people loose their money, jobs, and investments...the latter mostly due to weak dollar and inflation. but eventually stock market will fly high...again... ;)

Also some people believe it'll be a very good time to buy some good things real cheap. :cool: I wish I knew what will that be. :)

[Yanka]

Я не в курсах об экономике россии, где самый богатый человек в мире является ее де факто диктатором.
привожу только сегодняшнюю статейку, подкрепляющее мой предыдущий пост

http://www.mignews.com/news/economics/cis/160908_232005_32036.html

Кремль спешно ищет пути выхода из экономического тупика

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16.09 23:10 MIGnews.com

Чиновники Кремля, правительства и Центробанка РФ вместе с главами крупнейших банков уже несколько часов обсуждают в Белом доме возможные действия в связи с кризисом, охватившим российские рынки капитала, сообщили Reuters несколько источников, знакомых с подготовкой совещания.

По словам одного из них, на совещании, которое ведет первый вице-премьер Игорь Шувалов, присутствуют глава Центробанка Сергей Игнатьев и его первый заместитель Алексей Улюкаев, министр финансов Алексей Кудрин, министр экономразвития Эльвира Набиуллина, а также помощник президента РФ по экономическим вопросам Аркадий Дворкович.

Другой источник, знакомый с ходом встречи, сказал, что на ней также присутствует глава Сбербанка Герман Греф.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Известно, что меньше чем за месяц после окончания грузинской войны более
чем 20 миллиардов баксов иностранных инвесторов срочно были изъяты из русской экономики. это наверное только начало краха русских Новых финансовых Васюков в москве, которые новые русские богачи хлестались создать там

Блин, не понимаю. Как они могли доверить экономразвитие Эльвире Наибулиной?

[Нюша]

there are a lot of web sites. go to bloomberg.com and type: wm

in the field called "Enter symbol". then click on news etc...

as for yr direct deposit, you can set it to any am bank, right? citi bank has retail offices and ATMs in moscow, talk to them if you can directly access yr american citi bank checking from their moscow offices...

Thanks - I'll check it out.

Re: CITIBANK.

The citibanks here are not the same ones as in the US. They have some loose ties but not enough to make it worthwhile to open an account with them rather than someone else.

[Drey]

Я не в курсах об экономике россии, где самый богатый человек в мире является ее де факто диктатором.
привожу только сегодняшнюю статейку, подкрепляющее мой предыдущий пост

http://www.mignews.com/news/economics/cis/160908_232005_32036.html

Кремль спешно ищет пути выхода из экономического тупика

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16.09 23:10 MIGnews.com

Чиновники Кремля, правительства и Центробанка РФ вместе с главами крупнейших банков уже несколько часов обсуждают в Белом доме возможные действия в связи с кризисом, охватившим российские рынки капитала, сообщили Reuters несколько источников, знакомых с подготовкой совещания.

По словам одного из них, на совещании, которое ведет первый вице-премьер Игорь Шувалов, присутствуют глава Центробанка Сергей Игнатьев и его первый заместитель Алексей Улюкаев, министр финансов Алексей Кудрин, министр экономразвития Эльвира Набиуллина, а также помощник президента РФ по экономическим вопросам Аркадий Дворкович.

Другой источник, знакомый с ходом встречи, сказал, что на ней также присутствует глава Сбербанка Герман Греф.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Известно, что меньше чем за месяц после окончания грузинской войны более
чем 20 миллиардов баксов иностранных инвесторов срочно были изъяты из русской экономики. это наверное только начало краха русских Новых финансовых Васюков в москве, которые новые русские богачи хлестались создать там

Стад, да тут куда не плюнь везде кризис после америки, но в россии там больше испуг чем кризис, хотя ты прав, что инвестиций в россию резко убавилось по разным причинам, в первую очередь, я считаю, потому как эти деньги нужны иностранным банкам инвесторам как воздух чтобы выжить у себя на родине... ну енто так.. к слову, а вообще непонятна немного твоя позиция... ты типо желаешь россии загнуться, ну понятно, старая обида... да ты посмотри что у тебя в стране делается! или ты ищешь где ещё хуже что бы те болваны которые "дерегулировали" американский рынок последние 8 лет (а сейчас кричат об обратном: необходимости хоть какого-то гос регулирования) смотрелись на их фоне лучше?

[Drey]

Also some people believe it'll be a very good time to buy some good things real cheap. :cool: I wish I knew what will that be. :)

:) yeah well.. i looked up historic price chart for "world benchmark" Dow Jones industrial index adjusted for inflation... from 1924 to 2008. right now Dow is approx at 11,000 but adjusted for inflation since 1924 it should be approx 1,000.
interesting ha? :)

[Нюша]

Drew - explain to me the thing about AIG now. Also the thing about Lehman Brothers.

[Drey]

Drew - explain to me the thing about AIG now. Also the thing about Lehman Brothers.
as I see it:
with independent investment banks (Lehman was one of them), they finance their daily operations with REPOs (repurchase agreement) which basically borrowing cash overnight and then repaying it, and they do it on daily bases, this business as usual for them. The problem started with too many bad investments on trading books. Lehman got positions in mortgage papers that were worthless and ranked below investment grade...surely when Moodys and S&P started closely monitoring banks in light of recent problems they started downgrading Lehman credit ranking which made financing their business with REPOs impossible due to much higher interest rate and simply due to no one would be willing to lend them money. Actually as I see it Morgan Stanley and Goldman have the same huge risk with their repo financing business and watch their stock, it's been loosing 40% over the last week...

so as you see the big problem right now is with liquidity and credit: nobody wants to lend money and credit is very expensive, while existing bad assets bring investment companies down.

as for AIG, i didn't followed this close enough to comment on but i think it is very similar problem, bad mortgage insurance planning, failed mortgages resulted in S&P and Moody's downgraded AIG's credit ranking, now AIG cannot finance it's business (AIG doesnt use REPOs however it is heavily depends on affordable credit), Fed stepped in to lend AIG cash but the problem is that even with Fed cash this wont help credit market... i think people will start running on some banks and eventually if we dont fix credit crises on institutional level it will trickle down to people on the street and it will be real nightmare since all american economy is based on credit purchases; cars, houses etc...

by the way here is what i saw on bloomberg news about AIG:

"Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Directors at American International Group Inc., which is receiving an $85 billion bailout from the U.S. government, were sued by a pension fund seeking to recover losses it blamed on company mismanagement.

AIG's senior management and directors failed to implement proper controls and monitor the risk of losses in the sub prime market, lawyers for the City of New Orleans Employees' Retirement System said in a complaint filed today in Delaware Chancery Court in Wilmington on AIG's behalf. "

[Yanka]

as I see it



I've read that the sizes of credit cards for the common folks will have to become smaller.

[stud becker]

Стад, да тут куда не плюнь везде кризис после америки, но в россии там больше испуг чем кризис, хотя ты прав, что инвестиций в россию резко убавилось по разным причинам, в первую очередь, я считаю, потому как эти деньги нужны иностранным банкам инвесторам как воздух чтобы выжить у себя на родине... ну енто так.. к слову, а вообще непонятна немного твоя позиция... ты типо желаешь россии загнуться, ну понятно, старая обида... да ты посмотри что у тебя в стране делается! или ты ищешь где ещё хуже что бы те болваны которые "дерегулировали" американский рынок последние 8 лет (а сейчас кричат об обратном: необходимости хоть какого-то гос регулирования) смотрелись на их фоне лучше?

как раз наоборот.
Все совковые дисиденты желали россии добра и пытались улучшить жизнь
своего народа, рискуя своей жизнью. И никто больше не причинил россии вреда, чем русские правители.
Только в 20 веке русскими правителями было умертвлено на много больше русского народа, чем всеми иностранными правительствами вместе взятыми.
Нафиг им нужна была супер дорогая брато убиственная война в грузии и маленкие территории двух горных местечек, которые нужно будет содержать русским налого плательшикам. У россии столько много земли, как ни у одной страны в мире,и которую она не в состоянии сама освоить.
Что касается корупции богатых в америке, так им нужен плохой дьявольский пример за рубежом. Наверное, плохой пример России поможет возродиться америке

[Yanka]

как раз наоборот.
Все совковые дисиденты желали россии добра и пытались улучшить жизнь
своего народа, рискуя своей жизнью. И никто больше не причинил россии вреда, чем русские правители.
Только в 20 веке русскими правителями было умертвлено на много больше русского народа, чем всеми иностранными правительствами вместе взятыми.
Нафиг им нужна была супер дорогая брато убиственная война в грузии и маленкие территории двух горных местечек, которые нужно будет содержать русским налого плательшикам. У россии столько много земли, как ни у одной страны в мире,и которую она не в состоянии сама освоить.
Что касается корупции богатых в америке, так им нужен плохой дьявольский пример за рубежом. Наверное, плохой пример России поможет возродиться америке

Умом Россию не понять, а деньги в жизни не главное. :cool:

[Drey]

Умом Россию не понять, а деньги в жизни не главное. :cool:

мне например умом Studa не понять ;)

[Drey]

I've read that the sizes of credit cards for the common folks will have to become smaller.


врут они не слушай! LOL размер останется преждним: 3.370 × 2.125 inches :tongue: :grin:

[darkie]

врут они не слушай! LOL размер останется преждним: 3.370 × 2.125 inches :tongue: :grin:

5 баллов :tongue:

[Нюша]

as I see it:
with independent investment banks (Lehman was one of them), they finance their daily operations with REPOs (repurchase agreement) which basically borrowing cash overnight and then repaying it, and they do it on daily bases, this business as usual for them. The problem started with too many bad investments on trading books. Lehman got positions in mortgage papers that were worthless and ranked below investment grade...surely when Moodys and S&P started closely monitoring banks in light of recent problems they started downgrading Lehman credit ranking which made financing their business with REPOs impossible due to much higher interest rate and simply due to no one would be willing to lend them money. Actually as I see it Morgan Stanley and Goldman have the same huge risk with their repo financing business and watch their stock, it's been loosing 40% over the last week...

SO THEY FINANCE BUSINESSES THAT THEY INVEST IN THROUGH BORROWING MONEY FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE OVER NIGHT? WHY OVERNIGHT? AND WHAT DO THEY INVEST IN? AND WHO USUALLY GIVES THEM MONEY OVERNIGHT?




as for AIG, i didn't followed this close enough to comment on but i think it is very similar problem, bad mortgage insurance planning, failed mortgages resulted in S&P and Moody's downgraded AIG's credit ranking, now AIG cannot finance it's business (AIG doesnt use REPOs however it is heavily depends on affordable credit), Fed stepped in to lend AIG cash but the problem is that even with Fed cash this wont help credit market... i think people will start running on some banks and eventually if we dont fix credit crises on institutional level it will trickle down to people on the street and it will be real nightmare since all american economy is based on credit purchases; cars, houses etc...

THAT'S ANOTHER THING I NEVER FULLY GOT....WHEN THEY TALK OF A GOVERNMENT BAIL OUT, THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT LENDING MONEY, NOT JUST GIVING IT AWAY, RIGHT? SO THEORETICALLY, THE GOVT SHOULD RECEIVE IT'S MONEY BACK (IF THE COMPANY DOESN'T GO OUT OF BUSINESS) AND EVEN AT A SMALL PROFIT, RIGHT?

PS - THANK YOU FOR SUCH A DETAILED EXPLANATION

[Drey]

SO THEY FINANCE BUSINESSES THAT THEY INVEST IN THROUGH BORROWING MONEY FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE OVER NIGHT? WHY OVERNIGHT? AND WHAT DO THEY INVEST IN? AND WHO USUALLY GIVES THEM MONEY OVERNIGHT?

trading repo(s) is very common practice in capital markets. when you have long position on books that is leveraged to 30% of the invested capital and your requirements (imposed by SEC for example) are to have (for example) 35% then you go to repo market and buy 5% of the needed value. Now if you do business this way what happens when your long position highly leveraged goes down in value... if you familiar with buying on margin you'd know that to meet margin requirements your obligation to bring more cash are proportionally increase. independant investment banks use repos because they dont take investors deposits: inv banks were separated from commercial banks way back, it's a separate story... so.. back to repo :) in institutional capital markets there are a lot of contraparties to each bank depending on their credit ranking, and Lehman had really high ranking and anyone would lend them cash (from different funds to commercial banks etc) but when Lehman's ranking went down, the money supply disappeared. another interesting thing got revealed recently when some other parties got access to Lehman books: the value of their assets were overvalued a few times! there was no regulation not only on investment banks taking stupid bets but also on evaluation of their portfolios and assets... then add to it swaps/warrantees Lehman and AIG were selling against mortgage defaults and the picture becomes pretty clear... also: if Lehman has this mess in their books, can anyone guarantee that Morgan Stanley or Goldman do not have the same problem?!




THAT'S ANOTHER THING I NEVER FULLY GOT....WHEN THEY TALK OF A GOVERNMENT BAIL OUT, THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT LENDING MONEY, NOT JUST GIVING IT AWAY, RIGHT? SO THEORETICALLY, THE GOVT SHOULD RECEIVE IT'S MONEY BACK (IF THE COMPANY DOESN'T GO OUT OF BUSINESS) AND EVEN AT A SMALL PROFIT, RIGHT?

PS - THANK YOU FOR SUCH A DETAILED EXPLANATION

True, in case with AIG it's a loan for exchange of the 79 %(or something like this) stake in the company, basically the AIG becomes government company, now... who will be returning money to who? ;)
if you noticed: republicans fight for deregulation of market but in result nationalize the whole market... it's socialism here, if you big enough and you made stupid bets on market, government bails you out and tax payers take on liability (while during profitable years, all profits were capitalized to private pockets).
i think we are getting closer to real problem with US Treasuries running out of money, they cannot print more => inflation. but they can raise taxes...

[Yanka]

врут они не слушай! LOL размер останется преждним: 3.370 × 2.125 inches :tongue: :grin:

:) I knew you'll say it, but still got impressed with your knowlege of sizes. :cheers:

[Drey]

:) I knew you'll say it, but still got impressed with your knowlege of sizes. :cheers:

thank you :) i know you appreciate my "knowlege of size" :cool:

[Drey]

just like in Disney movie :) ...late trading session and Dow index flew up over 400 points (highest fly in 6 years on single trading session) on the news that US gov creates agency that will be buying bad loans (similar to what was created in
1930s during great depression), and limits sell shorts.
i am happy to see enthusiasm on the market... but aren't we (taxpayers and generations to come) going to pay for all these bad loans now?! :puzzled:

[Yanka]

мне например умом Studa не понять ;)
:) That's right, it's not easy, he's above the average. You need to practice more.

[Yanka]

just like in Disney movie :) ...late trading session and Dow index flew up over 400 points (highest fly in 6 years on single trading session) on the news that US gov creates agency that will be buying bad loans (similar to what was created in
1930s during great depression), and limits sell shorts.
i am happy to see enthusiasm on the market... but aren't we (taxpayers and generations to come) going to pay for all these bad loans now?! :puzzled:
They must be busy out there, ha? Some broker joked: "Today was a long week!"

Why can't bad loans just be written off, like nothing ever happened? :rolleyes:

[Drey]

:) That's right, it's not easy, he's above the average. You need to practice more.


LOL nice try... умом или ещё чем but I rather practice with opposite sex

[stud becker]

Умом Россию не понять, а деньги в жизни не главное. :cool:
I hate to tell you that I am right.
You do not to have to be rocket scientist to predict result of russian government actions
http://www.mignews.com/news/economics/cis/190908_95134_33503.html

[Drey]

I hate to tell you that I am right.
You do not to have to be rocket scientist to predict result of russian government actions
http://www.mignews.com/news/economics/cis/190908_95134_33503.html

what exactly are you talking about when say "hate to tell you that I am right"?

[Drey]

...as the first euphoria over rescue plan settles... now people started to think about “will it help?"... and what will be the implication on the economy for adding over $1 trillion in debt (ironically it's almost the same as the cost of whole iraq war... )
After all US government cannot bail out everyone and give free housing to all LOL (wouldn't that be nice?) and nationalize all private financial institutions. :)

i think by end of year we are going to get US dollar significantly loosing its value against euro and JPY, and most other currencies. we'll see growing risk on overall US gov. financing such huge debt without risking inflation... and some major US debt buyers and ForEx traders will re-evaluate US risks and exposure on US market and not in favor of US...which will result (in best case scenario) in higher cost for US gov to finance debt and in the worse case, well... US gov would have to find ways to reduce national debt

[Нюша]

trading repo(s) is very common practice in capital markets. when you have long position on books that is leveraged to 30% of the invested capital and your requirements (imposed by SEC for example) are to have (for example) 35% then you go to repo market and buy 5% of the needed value. Now if you do business this way what happens when your long position highly leveraged goes down in value... if you familiar with buying on margin you'd know that to meet margin requirements your obligation to bring more cash are proportionally increase. independant investment banks use repos because they dont take investors deposits: inv banks were separated from commercial banks way back, it's a separate story... so.. back to repo :) in institutional capital markets there are a lot of contraparties to each bank depending on their credit ranking, and Lehman had really high ranking and anyone would lend them cash (from different funds to commercial banks etc) but when Lehman's ranking went down, the money supply disappeared. another interesting thing got revealed recently when some other parties got access to Lehman books: the value of their assets were overvalued a few times! there was no regulation not only on investment banks taking stupid bets but also on evaluation of their portfolios and assets... then add to it swaps/warrantees Lehman and AIG were selling against mortgage defaults and the picture becomes pretty clear... also: if Lehman has this mess in their books, can anyone guarantee that Morgan Stanley or Goldman do not have the same problem?!

Oh dear....I would be lying if I said I understood this explanation!

What is a "long position"?

Actually, I started writing questions, but it's futile. But I really want to understand. So can you just explain it to me in terms of an example? Like...

I am company So and So...I want to make money by doing So and So...I go and buy This and That...but So and So happens, so I do this and that...?

Bitte Shone! :open:

[baraban]

What is a "long position"?


When you buy an asset that you consider to have a long term intrinsic value, you take a "long position" in it. As opposed to selling short, i.e. borrowing an asset to sell it, hoping that it will go down in value, so that you can buy it back at lower cost, before you give it back.

Also some people believe it'll be a very good time to buy some good things real cheap. :cool: I wish I knew what will that be. :)

Saw some really amazing deals come up last Thursday. I picked up some ADM (http://www.odessapage.com/new/en/Archer-Daniels-Midland) dirt cheap.

[Yanka]

Saw some really amazing deals come up last Thursday. I picked up some ADM (http://www.odessapage.com/new/en/Archer-Daniels-Midland) dirt cheap.
Be careful 'cause these days you can not trust big agricultural companies either. Some of them now are under investigation about fixing prices (something about eggs and tomatoes), so, they might be in trouble some time soon. :cool:

[Yanka]

Drew - explain to me the thing about AIG now. Also the thing about Lehman Brothers.
Вот лично моя "любимая" история про ЛеманБр.:
За несколько часов как объявить банкротство, несколько биллионов, предназначенных для выплаты зарплат рядовых работников, было переведено из Лондонского отдела компании, неизвестно куда.
:puzzled:

[baraban]

Be careful 'cause these days you can not trust big agricultural companies either. Some of them now are under investigation about fixing prices (something about eggs and tomatoes), so, they might be in trouble some time soon. :cool:

If it was risk free, it would be reward free, as well. :)

[Drey]

If it was risk free, it would be reward free, as well. :)


whats your take on the market? you see the light in the tunnel? :)

[Drey]

by the way folks, here is a good article on how this mess got spread so far and so out of control...


http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ah839IWTLP9s&refer=home

[Drey]

Oh dear....I would be lying if I said I understood this explanation!

What is a "long position"?

Actually, I started writing questions, but it's futile. But I really want to understand. So can you just explain it to me in terms of an example? Like...

I am company So and So...I want to make money by doing So and So...I go and buy This and That...but So and So happens, so I do this and that...?

Bitte Shone! :open:


Nusha, i think it will be faster if you read any book on capital markets or stock trading etc... by the way Washington Mutual went under... i hope your acc is ok etc... JP Morgan bought their deposits.. i think Wachovia is the next one...

[baraban]

whats your take on the market? you see the light in the tunnel? :)

I am just as in the dark as everyone else right now. However, my gut feeling is that the indexes have room to fall further. Of course, even if that is true, some stocks will only go up from here. I am mostly watching along with the rest of the world right now. Frankly, the only light at the end of the tunnel that I see is the oncoming train of debt. I am much more positive on resources and countries that are resource-rich than I am on the US economy.

[Нюша]

Nusha, i think it will be faster if you read any book on capital markets or stock trading etc... by the way Washington Mutual went under... i hope your acc is ok etc... JP Morgan bought their deposits.. i think Wachovia is the next one...


Geez...you are right. It did go out of business. But I like Chase more or less, so it seems like things will go about as usual.